Windrow Plan · San Antonio, TX 78264

$169,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 496 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $169,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $166,224.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 496 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $134,324 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 496 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,224
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: 2.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2842 Carnelian Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	10mo	$184,999	$179	89
2826 Carnelian Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	10mo	$138,749	$134	89
2818 Carnelian Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	10mo	$152,399	$148	88
20337 Onyx Ring	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	13mo	$153,899	$149	88
20454 Onyx Ring	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	11mo	$166,999	$162	87
20329 Onyx Ring	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	14mo	$154,499	$150	86
20333 Onyx Ring	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	15mo	$136,999	$133	86
20325 Onyx Ring	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	15mo	$144,499	$140	85
20322 Onyx Ring	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	14mo	$146,339	$142	84
20342 Onyx Ring	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	16mo	$152,999	$148	84
20402 Onyx Ring	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	19mo	$147,999	$143	82
20407 Red Coral	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,129 (+9%)	20mo	$181,999	$161	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $22,930
• Equity at exit: $83,745

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $79,452
• Equity at exit: $136,548

Cash invested: $46,543 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$872
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$208 /mo · $2,493/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $153,551

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,556
• Closing costs: $4,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	2d	1	0.04mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	43d	1	0.04mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	23d	1	0.05mi
20356 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,199	$1.18	17d	1	0.06mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	0.08mi
20310 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	741	$1,300	$1.75	43d	1	0.08mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	16d	1	0.11mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	0.11mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	4d	1	0.12mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	21d	1	0.13mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	17d	1	0.14mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	23d	1	0.15mi
3230 S Loop 1604 E Unit B1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$895	$1.17	2d	1	0.43mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	43d	1	0.49mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit B03 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$950	$1.06	23d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	23d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	2d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit B03 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$950	$1.06	2d	1	0.52mi
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	43d	1	1.02mi
19230 FM 1937 #4 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,450	$1.10	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 496 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 495 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 494 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 493 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 491 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 490 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 487 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 486 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,999 Active 485 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,999 Active 482 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 481 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 480 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 479 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 478 DOM
15. 2025-06-30
    price $169,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-02-08
    listed $179,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,311
• − Property taxes: −$2,493
• − Insurance: −$831
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$4,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $-107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $179,999 Zillow