891 Elizabeth · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$134,500

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1978 $80/sqft · 68% below area $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL, TENANT OCCUPIED. If you are an investor looking for a turnkey occupied property consider this rental in BULLARD ISD. This property is on a double lot with lots of backyard space including a large fenced back yard, storage building with power, and a fire pit. This is in a gated community with access to Lake Palestine (Shadybrook), and community amenities include swimming pools, park and private boat ramp. Home features an open concept kitchen/dining/living space. Kitchen has SS appliances including landlord owned refrigerator and microwave. Updates include HVAC (new in 2020), metal roof (new in 2021), septic (new in 2022), vinyl plank flooring and keyless locks. Seller wil

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1978
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); HOA fee $276 annually (about $23/month); Gated community; Community pool

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum/metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Chain link fencing; Lake frontage (Lake Palestine); Storage building/area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Walk-in closet(s)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $134,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$416,939) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,465 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,939
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: -67.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
919 Eastdale Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+4%)	14mo	$424,900	$244	40
688 Charlya Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,918 (+14%)	20mo	$575,000	$300	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,976
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $15,452
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,268/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	44d	1	1.10mi
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $134,500 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,500 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,500 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,500 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $139,500 Active 839-char remark
18. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,268 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,268 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$3,268
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable income: $968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$232
• After-tax cash flow: $2,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $134,500 GTAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $139,500 GTAR
• 2020-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+55.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,268 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.