151 Plum Tree Rd · Flowood, MS 39047

$214,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,241 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot Est $199k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this cozy 3 bed 2 bath home located in the heart of NWR school district! This home features a beautiful covered deck, perfect for entertaining you next barbecue overlooking a large yard. Featuring granite countertops in the kitchen and stained concrete floors in the main living area. This home will not last long! Schedule your private tour with your favorite Realtor today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Outdoor dining
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached, paved 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Back yard wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Two additional bedrooms on main level; Total of 3 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Bluff Elementary (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #58 of 375 statewide, top 15%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,813 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Bellegrove Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+0%)	3mo	$193,500	$156	88
102 Bellegrove Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+6%)	7mo	$209,900	$160	68
1 Brandy Village Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+7%)	2mo	$218,000	$164	65
408 Pinebrook Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+13%)	3mo	$239,900	$171	64
169 Bellegrove Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+12%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	63
14 S Brandy Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-8%)	3mo	$167,500	$146	62
117 Shenandoah Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+15%)	1mo	$165,000	$116	51
123 Cumberland Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+8%)	1mo	$219,900	$163	50
102 Cumberland Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	0mo	$145,000	$109	50
117 Cumberland Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+8%)	3mo	$219,900	$164	48
100 Vine Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+11%)	0mo	$209,900	$152	40
203 Lotus Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	1mo	$269,900	$192	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,417
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $103
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,964/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,747

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
154 Plum Tree Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,931	$1.50	23d	1	0.08mi
183 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,750	$1.60	21d	1	0.45mi
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$2,052	$1.59	14d	6	0.65mi
352 Brendalwood Cv Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1248	$1,157	$0.93	43d	1	0.77mi
1204 Barnett Bend Cir Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,625	$1.44	21d	1	1.28mi
111 Lakeshore Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,218	$2.28	14d	8	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $214,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,964 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,964 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,964
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$188
• After-tax cash flow: $2,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $214,900 MLSU
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,430 RENT.
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-09-02 Listed $160,000 MLSU
• 2008-09-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2008-06-21 Listed $116,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,964 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.