2936 E Crescent Way · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$459,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2007 6,178 sqft lot Est $480k · at est. $105/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***VACANT LOCKBOX VACANT*** Completed spec home! Please call sales office for more incentive information. HOURS; SAT-THURS 10-6, FRI, 12-6.

Key facts

• 6,178 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee; Association fee covers grounds maintenance; Association restricts visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front and rear; Desert front and back landscaping; Block and wrought iron fencing; Asphalt road access; Playground and biking/walking path in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with natural gas; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 master bath; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-754 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (42.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chandler Traditional Academy-Freedom (math 71% / reading 74%, grade A, #42 of 1,109 statewide, top 4%, 619 students, 9% FRL); Dr. Camille Casteel High School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 3,140 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; list at $459k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,674 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.04%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,441
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2937 E Aris Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,651 (0%)	4mo	$470,000	$285	90
6028 S Connie Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,651 (0%)	5mo	$526,000	$319	82
2943 E Mead Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,651 (0%)	8mo	$466,000	$282	81
3021 E Tonto Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,651 (0%)	3mo	$455,000	$276	81
2904 E Mead Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,651 (0%)	9mo	$500,000	$303	80
6482 S Claiborne Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+0%)	10mo	$480,000	$291	59
6092 S Bridal Vail Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$535,000	$306	58
5871 S Parkcrest St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+7%)	5mo	$500,000	$284	58
3298 E Morning Star Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,675 (+2%)	10mo	$455,000	$272	54
3284 E Powell Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-10%)	10mo	$440,000	$296	47
3435 E Anika Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (+6%)	7mo	$485,000	$277	47
2590 E Penedes Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+7%)	5mo	$564,000	$320	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $155,136
• Equity at exit: $360,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $493,787
• Equity at exit: $725,960

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,602/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,591

Max offer price $325,837

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	18d	1	0.07mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	2d	1	0.25mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	14d	1	0.55mi
2971 E Ridgewood Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,380	$1.42	43d	1	0.67mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	43d	1	0.68mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	24d	1	0.68mi
3067 E Palmdale Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,300	$1.37	14d	1	0.77mi
6770 S Tucana Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2070	$4,500	$2.17	24d	1	0.95mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	16d	1	1.12mi
2304 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,400	$1.34	12d	1	1.17mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	4d	1	1.17mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	24d	1	1.17mi
3443 E Riopelle Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,350	$1.83	43d	1	1.18mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	12d	1	1.20mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	43d	1	1.22mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	43d	1	1.24mi
3147 E Vallejo Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,350	$1.08	16d	1	1.25mi
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,750	$1.64	14d	1	1.30mi
3068 E Ravenswood Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,550	$1.40	12d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $459,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $459,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 23 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
11. 2026-05-08
    listed $459,000 Active
12. 2015-12-22
    soldstatus $233,900
13. 2015-11-10
    status Pending
14. 2015-10-26
    price $233,990
15. 2015-09-12
    price $239,000
16. 2015-09-05
    listed $243,000 Active
17. 2008-01-07
    soldstatus $241,605 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    ***VACANT LOCKBOX VACANT*** Completed spec home! Please call sales office for more incentive information. HOURS; SAT-THURS 10-6, FRI, 12-6.

18. 2008-01-04
    historical 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    ***VACANT LOCKBOX VACANT*** Completed spec home! Please call sales office for more incentive information. HOURS; SAT-THURS 10-6, FRI, 12-6.

19. 2007-05-11
    listed $248,765 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    ***VACANT LOCKBOX VACANT*** Completed spec home! Please call sales office for more incentive information. HOURS; SAT-THURS 10-6, FRI, 12-6.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,427/yr (+$119/mo · 89.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$1,602
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$17,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+84.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $459,000 ARMLS
• 2015-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $233,900 Public Records
• 2015-11-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-10-26 Price Changed $233,990 ARMLS
• 2015-09-12 Price Changed $239,000 ARMLS
• 2015-09-05 Listed $243,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-07 Sold (MLS) $241,605 ARMLS
• 2008-01-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-05-11 Listed $248,765 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,602 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.