936 W Sullivan St · Miami, AZ 85539

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 905 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $57k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#289 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $60k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.27%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,015
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1157 W Frederick St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+11%)	6mo	$149,000	$148	64
512 W Pinto St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+15%)	1mo	$50,000	$48	59
512 W Pinto St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+15%)	2mo	$65,000	$63	58
239 S Latham Blvd	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	17mo	$45,000	$55	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $32,608
• Equity at exit: $9,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $82,789
• Equity at exit: $5,537

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $462

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 Bird St Unit A Miami, AZ	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $60,000 Active
18. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

19. 2022-08-14
    status Pending 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

20. 2022-08-03
    price $25,000 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

21. 2022-06-21
    status Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

22. 2022-03-14
    status Pending 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

23. 2022-03-06
    listed $30,000 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Top of the hill - perched near the top of M Mountain - beautiful views of downtown Miami - Fix up 1920's house - great for first time buyer, investor, rental, etc - great price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $7,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $6,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Miami

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #24461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $60,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-08-16 Sold (MLS) $20,000 ARMLS
• 2022-08-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-08-03 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-03-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-03-06 Listed $30,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.