25533 Flora Bella Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Built 2026 5,401 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $312k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Dream Finders Home! Experience the perfect upgrade in the Cooke floorplan by Dream Finders Homes, a standout residence in the premier Briarwood community. This expansive 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed for those who need room to grow without sacrificing style. The heart of the home opens to a bright, airy living space that leads directly to a private covered patio—your new favorite spot for morning coffee or weekend BBQs. The primary suite is a true homeowner’s retreat, boasting impressive square footage and a massive walk-in closet with storage to spare. Combining luxury with peace of mind, this home is 3.2 Energy Star certified, offering industry-leading energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Don’t miss your chance to own this blend of space, sophistication, and sustainability—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-557 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,767 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,769
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -0.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (+2%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	85
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-1%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	84
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-1%)	1mo	$299,999	$179	81
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+2%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	78
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+9%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	71
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,766 (+4%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	68
13605 Barn Chime St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-5%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	63
13500 Barn Chime St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-3%)	3mo	$274,990	$167	61
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-3%)	3mo	$289,990	$176	60
13420 Barn Chime St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-3%)	3mo	$284,990	$173	58
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (-12%)	1mo	$254,000	$169	56
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,833 (+8%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $133,666
• Equity at exit: $279,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $422,217
• Equity at exit: $602,068

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,832

Max offer price $229,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-343	-5% $-450	+0% $-557	+5% $-664	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-725	-5% $-641	+0% $-557	+5% $-473	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-401	-0.5pp $-478	base $-557	+0.5pp $-637	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.34mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	17d	1	0.40mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	46d	1	0.57mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	22d	1	0.66mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.71mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.73mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	26d	1	0.73mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	20d	1	0.75mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	0.76mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	20d	1	0.78mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	46d	1	0.80mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	26d	1	0.82mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	46d	1	0.82mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.84mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.85mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	26d	1	0.90mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	46d	1	0.90mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	26d	1	0.96mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	46d	1	0.96mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.99mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	26d	1	0.99mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	1.04mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	1.05mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	1.08mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	1.13mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.14mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	26d	1	1.17mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	20d	1	1.18mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.19mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	1.19mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.20mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	26d	1	1.22mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	4d	1	1.26mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	1.34mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.34mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	46d	1	1.37mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	1.39mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	26d	1	1.39mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,900 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $309,900 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $314,900 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,590 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,590 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,590 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,590 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,590 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,590 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,590 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,590 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $320,590 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! Experience the perfect upgrade in the Cooke floorplan by Dream Finders Homes, a standout residence in the premier Briarwood community. This expansive 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed for those who need room to grow without sacrificing style. The heart of the home opens to a bright, airy living space that leads directly to a private covered patio—your new favorite spot for morning coffee or weekend BBQs. The primary suite is a true homeowner’s retreat, boasting impressive square footage and a massive walk-in closet with storage to spare. Combining luxury with peace of mind, this home is 3.2 Energy Star certified, offering industry-leading energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Don’t miss your chance to own this blend of space, sophistication, and sustainability—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-01
    price $318,590 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! Experience the perfect upgrade in the Cooke floorplan by Dream Finders Homes, a standout residence in the premier Briarwood community. This expansive 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed for those who need room to grow without sacrificing style. The heart of the home opens to a bright, airy living space that leads directly to a private covered patio—your new favorite spot for morning coffee or weekend BBQs. The primary suite is a true homeowner’s retreat, boasting impressive square footage and a massive walk-in closet with storage to spare. Combining luxury with peace of mind, this home is 3.2 Energy Star certified, offering industry-leading energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Don’t miss your chance to own this blend of space, sophistication, and sustainability—schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-02-10
    listed $315,590 Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! Experience the perfect upgrade in the Cooke floorplan by Dream Finders Homes, a standout residence in the premier Briarwood community. This expansive 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed for those who need room to grow without sacrificing style. The heart of the home opens to a bright, airy living space that leads directly to a private covered patio—your new favorite spot for morning coffee or weekend BBQs. The primary suite is a true homeowner’s retreat, boasting impressive square footage and a massive walk-in closet with storage to spare. Combining luxury with peace of mind, this home is 3.2 Energy Star certified, offering industry-leading energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Don’t miss your chance to own this blend of space, sophistication, and sustainability—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$12,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $320,590 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $318,590 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $315,590 Unlock MLS