50 Arrow Wood Pl · Round Lake, NY 12020

$345,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,628 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1985 6,969 sqft lot Est $370k · 7% under $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This Beautiful and Well Cared for Luther Forest End Unit Townhouse is what you've been searching for. You'll love the great open space in this 1635 sq ft 3 bedroom 2.5 Bath Home. It's been updated with Newer Windows & Custom Comfortex shades & blinds, Partial Metal Roof, Ductless Cooling, Stainless Steel Appliances and Bamboo Floors. It's Generator ready and updated with New Electrical panel. The private backyard with patio, gardens and shed is your own oasis. All this with 1st floor laundry room and tons of storage too. Close to everything! Minutes to SPAC, Saratoga Race Course, GlobalFoundries, Downtown Saratoga Springs & I87N. Open House Saturday 6/18 12-2pm & Sunday 6/19 1-3pm.

Key facts

• Ceramic tile entry
• End unit townhome
• Kitchen island

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• LUTHER FOREST COMMUNITY
• CERAMIC TILE ENTRY
• BAMBOO FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.2% in Round Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#236 in NY, #3,708 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malta Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 342 students, 29% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $286k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $280,869 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Arrow Wood Pl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,628 (0%)	0mo	$366,000	$225	100
62 Arrowwood Pl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,628 (0%)	3mo	$360,000	$221	95
57 Snowberry Rd	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,602 (-2%)	11mo	$356,250	$222	64
130 Thimbleberry Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-12%)	3mo	$323,000	$227	58
150 Thimbleberry Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-12%)	8mo	$335,000	$235	54
42 Landon Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,821 (+12%)	10mo	$452,813	$249	51
210 Thimbleberry Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-12%)	8mo	$275,000	$193	43
109 Thimbleberry Rd	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (-15%)	4mo	$335,000	$242	41
198 Thimbleberry Rd	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (-15%)	3mo	$318,500	$230	38
68 Thimbleberry Rd	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (-15%)	1mo	$292,000	$211	36
187 Thimbleberry Rd	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (-15%)	5mo	$320,000	$231	36
44 Thimbleberry Rd	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (-15%)	5mo	$255,000	$184	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-52,493
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,270
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,222/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,037

Max offer price $313,149

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Snowberry Rd Ballston Spa, NY	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,750	$2.35	44d	1	0.30mi
2101 Ellsworth Blvd Ballston Spa, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,230	$2.56	14d	21	0.45mi
4 Fenlon Ln Ballston Spa, NY	4.0	3.5	2087	$4,500	$2.16	23d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $345,000 Active
3. 2022-08-23
   soldstatus $285,500
4. 2022-08-19
   soldstatus $285,500 Closed 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Welcome Home! This Beautiful and Well Cared for Luther Forest End Unit Townhouse is what you've been searching for. You'll love the great open space in this 1635 sq ft 3 bedroom 2.5 Bath Home. It's been updated with Newer Windows & Custom Comfortex shades & blinds, Partial Metal Roof, Ductless Cooling, Stainless Steel Appliances and Bamboo Floors. It's Generator ready and updated with New Electrical panel. The private backyard with patio, gardens and shed is your own oasis. All this with 1st floor laundry room and tons of storage too. Close to everything! Minutes to SPAC, Saratoga Race Course, GlobalFoundries, Downtown Saratoga Springs & I87N. Open House Saturday 6/18 12-2pm & Sunday 6/19 1-3pm.

5. 2022-06-27
   status Pending 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Welcome Home! This Beautiful and Well Cared for Luther Forest End Unit Townhouse is what you've been searching for. You'll love the great open space in this 1635 sq ft 3 bedroom 2.5 Bath Home. It's been updated with Newer Windows & Custom Comfortex shades & blinds, Partial Metal Roof, Ductless Cooling, Stainless Steel Appliances and Bamboo Floors. It's Generator ready and updated with New Electrical panel. The private backyard with patio, gardens and shed is your own oasis. All this with 1st floor laundry room and tons of storage too. Close to everything! Minutes to SPAC, Saratoga Race Course, GlobalFoundries, Downtown Saratoga Springs & I87N. Open House Saturday 6/18 12-2pm & Sunday 6/19 1-3pm.

6. 2022-06-16
   listed $250,000 Active 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Welcome Home! This Beautiful and Well Cared for Luther Forest End Unit Townhouse is what you've been searching for. You'll love the great open space in this 1635 sq ft 3 bedroom 2.5 Bath Home. It's been updated with Newer Windows & Custom Comfortex shades & blinds, Partial Metal Roof, Ductless Cooling, Stainless Steel Appliances and Bamboo Floors. It's Generator ready and updated with New Electrical panel. The private backyard with patio, gardens and shed is your own oasis. All this with 1st floor laundry room and tons of storage too. Close to everything! Minutes to SPAC, Saratoga Race Course, GlobalFoundries, Downtown Saratoga Springs & I87N. Open House Saturday 6/18 12-2pm & Sunday 6/19 1-3pm.

7. 2002-08-27
   soldstatus $117,500
8. 2002-07-15
   soldstatus $117,500 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   SOLD BEFORE PRINT

9. 2002-06-14
   listed $117,500 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   SOLD BEFORE PRINT

10. 2002-06-14
    historical 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    SOLD BEFORE PRINT

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,222 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,526 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,222
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$8,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Round Lake

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #3708

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+193.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $345,000 Global MLS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $285,500 Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $285,500 Global MLS
• 2022-06-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Sold (MLS) $117,500 Global MLS
• 2002-06-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2002-06-14 Listed $117,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,222 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.