1146 Hawkstone Ln · Mehlville, MO 63125

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1965 7,701 sqft lot $151/sqft · 16% below area Est $267k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming Saint Louis ranch at 1146 Hawkstone Ln offers approximately 1,488 square feet of functional living space featuring four spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The interior flows seamlessly into a full basement providing ample storage or potential for customization, complemented by the convenience of an attached one-car garage. Situated in the 63125 area, this well-maintained home combines classic comfort with practical amenities, making it a perfect opportunity for anyone seeking a move-in-ready residence.

Key facts

• 7,701 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Mehlville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,328 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,567
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -15.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1125 Hawkstone Ln	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,444 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$156	84
3608 Cordes Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+3%)	2mo	$324,900	$212	64
767 Paschal Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,392 (-6%)	4mo	$329,900	$237	61
3762 Calef Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$177	59
1030 Camelot Gardens Dr Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (+7%)	3mo	$299,900	$189	58
710 Peace Haven Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (+3%)	0mo	$249,900	$163	55
686 Damascus Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-3%)	2mo	$315,000	$218	54
114 Buckley Meadows Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-4%)	2mo	$225,000	$157	51
2818 Redstone Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,669 (+12%)	3mo	$239,900	$144	47
560 Blossomheath Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,660 (+12%)	1mo	$249,900	$151	45
2957 Caspian Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,700 (+14%)	2mo	$211,000	$124	44
36 Buckley Meadows Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (+13%)	4mo	$280,000	$166	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,053
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,475
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3633 Shores Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	884	$1,920	$2.17	14d	1	0.56mi
3912 Manorwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,350	$1.31	44d	1	0.58mi
4001 Mitchford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,400	$1.86	1d	1	0.66mi
2628 Wessex Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,975	$1.27	19d	1	0.93mi
2231 Rosegarden Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1649	$2,100	$1.27	1d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   listed $225,000 Active 528-char remark
4. 1983-05-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$186
• After-tax cash flow: $3,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mehlville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #11310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mehlville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,508 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.