3621 Dawson Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1960 7,000 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3621 Dawson! A single-story, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home that has undergone a complete renovation. Theproperty features new flooring throughout, a modern HVAC system, and appliances. This beautifully updated home offersapproximately 1,116 square feet of living space on a huge 7,000 square foot lot, providing a comfortable and contemporaryenvironment.

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• New flooring
• Updated home

Tags

• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• NEW FLOORING
• MODERN HVAC SYSTEM
• UPDATED HOME
• HUGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,865/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,840
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 2.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9501 Chesterfield Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	8mo	$112,000	$97	70
9333 Fairland Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-3%)	8mo	$170,000	$157	67
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (+5%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	63
10205 Sierra Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (+3%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	60
10014 Sierra Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,243 (+11%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	59
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (+8%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	58
3138 Sunbeam St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,091 (-2%)	7mo	$109,900	$101	58
3334 Dulcrest St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (+0%)	3mo	$90,000	$80	54
3034 Corksie St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (+10%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	48
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	47
3030 Corksie St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,214 (+9%)	7mo	$149,250	$123	41
4210 Larkspur St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (+15%)	5mo	$199,000	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $117,368
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $340,456
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,451/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.67mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	0.76mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	0.99mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.01mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.05mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.09mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	2d	1	1.16mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.17mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	43d	1	1.21mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.22mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	1.23mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	1.44mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2025-11-18
    listed $179,900 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Welcome to 3621 Dawson! A single-story, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home that has undergone a complete renovation. Theproperty features new flooring throughout, a modern HVAC system, and appliances. This beautifully updated home offersapproximately 1,116 square feet of living space on a huge 7,000 square foot lot, providing a comfortable and contemporaryenvironment.

13. 2025-10-31
    historical
14. 2025-07-25
    price $179,000
15. 2025-07-02
    price $1,900
16. 2025-06-23
    price $185,000
17. 2025-06-19
    price $188,000
18. 2025-05-31
    price $190,000
19. 2025-05-30
    price $186,000
20. 2025-05-15
    price $188,000
21. 2025-03-24
    listed $190,000 Active
22. 2025-03-23
    price $2,000
23. 2025-03-13
    price $1,900
24. 2025-02-26
    listed $2,000
25. 2022-05-26
    historical
26. 2022-03-09
    price $164,500
27. 2022-03-04
    status Active
28. 2022-03-02
    status Option Pending
29. 2021-10-15
    status Active
30. 2021-10-08
    status Option Pending
31. 2021-09-04
    listed $149,500 Active
32. 2021-08-31
    historical
33. 2021-08-28
    listed $149,500 Active
34. 2021-05-27
    status Pending
35. 2021-05-27
    historical
36. 2021-05-12
    listed $145,000 Active
37. 2021-03-11
    historical
38. 2021-01-02
    price $134,500
39. 2020-12-25
    status Active
40. 2020-12-16
    status Option Pending
41. 2020-09-28
    price $124,000
42. 2020-06-04
    listed $139,500 Active
43. 2019-10-03
    status Option Pending
44. 2019-10-02
    historical
45. 2019-09-10
    listed $102,000 Active
46. 2019-09-06
    historical
47. 2019-07-11
    status Active
48. 2019-07-01
    status Option Pending
49. 2019-06-18
    status Active
50. 2019-06-09
    status Option Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$841/yr (+$70/mo · 34.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,451
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $143
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+721.5% since first listed

64 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $1,900 REDFIN
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $2,000 REDFIN
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $1,900 REDFIN
• 2025-02-26 Listed for Rent $2,000 REDFIN
• 2022-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-03-09 Price Changed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-04 Listed $149,500 HARMLS
• 2021-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-08-28 Listed $149,500 HARMLS
• 2021-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-05-12 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-01-02 Price Changed $134,500 HARMLS
• 2020-12-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-12-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $124,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Listed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2019-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-10 Listed $102,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-07-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-05-21 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-04 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-18 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2018-11-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2013-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-06 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 2013-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-08-20 Listed $21,900 HARMLS
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,451 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.