969 Candler Pl · The Villages, FL 32162

$284,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2003 6,195 sqft lot Est $280k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO BOND, PARTIALLY FURNISHED WITH GOLF CART. Welcome to 969 Candler Place in the Village of Summerhill—an inviting home in a prime location. This beautiful Austin model offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1½-car garage, providing space for both your vehicle and golf cart. The exterior features an attractive river rock landscape design leading to a welcoming front porch—ideal for morning coffee or casual conversations with neighbors. Inside, the home features a bright, open floor plan enhanced by three solar tubes that fill the space with natural light. Ceiling fans throughout provide year-round comfort, and the kitchen is thoughtfully designed with pull-out shelves for

Key facts

• Three solar tubes
• Pull-out shelves
• Large enclosed lanai

Tags

• RIVER ROCK LANDSCAPE DESIGN
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• THREE SOLAR TUBES
• PULL-OUT SHELVES
• LARGE ENCLOSED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $259k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,972/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $285k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,790
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
969 Candler Pl	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	1mo	$281,500	$246	99
3324 Ashbrook Pl	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	2mo	$360,000	$315	93
964 Kingmont Ter	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	3mo	$322,500	$282	92
1071 Blythe Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$241	90
3283 Candlebrook St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$245	88
3277 Ashbrook Pl	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,142 (0%)	3mo	$295,000	$258	88
884 Radclife Berea Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,141 (-0%)	2mo	$300,425	$263	84
3622 Cambria Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+1%)	2mo	$254,900	$221	77
3273 Riverton Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,143 (+0%)	1mo	$225,000	$197	75
876 Radclife Berea Pl	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+8%)	2mo	$265,000	$216	71
1270 Weaton Ct	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	2mo	$265,000	$212	58
1289 Addison Ave	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$300,000	$240	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,009
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $26,568
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.13mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	21d	1	0.28mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	0.30mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	21d	1	0.37mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	21d	1	0.37mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.41mi
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	21d	1	0.51mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,835	$1.94	21d	15	0.76mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	0.77mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	0.82mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	0.89mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.07mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	1.39mi
650 Richland Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$4,500	$3.79	21d	1	1.39mi
2864 Leicester Ter Unit 1525680P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,090	$1.85	21d	1	1.39mi
2111 Thornton Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,400	$3.81	21d	1	1.41mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	1.47mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $284,900
3. 2026-03-31
   price $289,900
4. 2026-02-25
   price $294,900
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $299,900 Active
6. 2011-07-28
   soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,853
• − Management: −$2,853
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable income: $50
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12
• After-tax cash flow: $4,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+103.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.