5594 Fawn Ridge Dr · Midway, FL 32563

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2003 6,534 sqft lot Est $300k · at est. $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5594 Fawn Ridge Dr is a single-owner home built in 2003 featuring 3 beds, 2 full baths, and approx. 1,400 square feet w a split-bedroom floorplan. The home offers brick & vinyl exterior, covered front porch, attached garage, and a privacy-fenced backyard with an in-ground vinyl-lined swimming pool and open patio/deck area. Inside, the great room features vaulted ceilings, W/ W carpeting with an open layout connecting the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes white wood cabinets, laminate counters, white appliances, a pantry, stainless dbl sink, and a window overlooking the backyard and pool. The dining area is positioned between the kitchen & great room and includes a wi

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• White wood cabinets
• Open patio area

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• IN GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• OPEN PATIO AREA
• WHITE WOOD CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with an annual fee (includes association and management)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Front entrance parking; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring; Cable available; Underground utilities; Paved, county-maintained road access
• Home design: House (resale); One story; Property attached (yes); Shingle gable roof
• Construction: Built with frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sprinkler system; Back yard with privacy fencing; Patio; Front porch; In-ground vinyl pool; Located on a cul-de-sac with central access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Gas/standard range (stove); Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 12.5' x 14.8'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approximately 9.8' x 11.5'); Third bedroom on the first floor (approximately 9.8' x 10.5')
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, all on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet available; Plant ledges; Smart thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-570/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,115 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,814
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5594 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$214	100
5566 Meadow Creek Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$223	77
5561 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$201	76
5813 Congress Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	0mo	$336,000	$241	75
2078 Shadow Lake Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	1mo	$330,000	$245	74
1980 Crosscreek Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-9%)	1mo	$300,000	$234	73
5407 Maverick Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$217	69
2026 Church St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-9%)	1mo	$255,000	$201	67
1944 Guseman Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+10%)	6mo	$310,000	$201	64
1982 Pentagon St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-14%)	6mo	$252,000	$209	61
5648 United Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-13%)	2mo	$261,000	$214	58
5600 Brentwater Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	1mo	$244,900	$204	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-49,544
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-31,272
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,394/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $301,612

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1889 Natures Way Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,850	$1.68	23d	1	0.12mi
1712 Bay Pine Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,150	$1.21	23d	1	0.47mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	14d	1	0.52mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	23d	1	0.52mi
5673 Stellarjay St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	21d	1	0.56mi
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	14d	1	0.57mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	14d	1	0.74mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	21d	1	0.74mi
1861 Teal Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	14d	5	0.89mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	23d	1	0.97mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	14d	1	1.15mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	23d	1	1.19mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	14d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $310,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Contingent 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Contingent 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Contingent 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Contingent 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    historical Contingent
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $310,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,573 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,179/yr (+$98/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$1,394
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$6,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $310,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,394 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.