412 W Live Oak St · Dublin, TX 76446

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 549 Days on market

Built 1900 9,583 sqft lot $82/sqft · 35% below area Est $163k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HANDY MAN DELUXE! Here is a house that needs to be totally renovated. The outside has a lot of character but remodeled it could be cute! The house is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and it is on a large treed lot with a lot of yard space.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 548 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.3% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#192 in TX, #4,899 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dublin ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 549 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 549 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,614
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -35.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
366 W Blackjack St	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,365 (+6%)	11mo	$249,999	$183	75
274 Hawk St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-13%)	10mo	$168,000	$150	61
230 W Live Oak St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+8%)	15mo	$109,000	$78	59
423 Mesquite St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (-8%)	15mo	$182,000	$153	59
617 N Park St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (-2%)	10mo	$200,000	$158	58
516 N Grafton	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (-6%)	2mo	$279,000	$231	54
551 N Grafton St	0.58mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,304 (+1%)	9mo	$229,000	$176	50
512 S Park St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (-10%)	13mo	$175,000	$151	44
702 N Park St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,123 (-13%)	6mo	$222,500	$198	44
115 N Davies St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,162 (-10%)	10mo	$169,000	$145	43
647 W Travis St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,441 (+12%)	1mo	$250,000	$173	41
426 E Harris St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+9%)	16mo	$215,000	$153	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-6,396
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $8,050
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76446

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $197	+0% $167	+5% $137	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $125	+0% $167	+5% $209	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $194	base $167	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 549 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 548 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 547 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 546 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 545 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 543 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 542 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 539 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 538 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 537 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 533 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 532 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 531 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 530 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 529 DOM
17. 2025-10-29
    price $105,000 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    HANDY MAN DELUXE! Here is a house that needs to be totally renovated. The outside has a lot of character but remodeled it could be cute! The house is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and it is on a large treed lot with a lot of yard space.

18. 2025-04-24
    price $115,000 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    HANDY MAN DELUXE! Here is a house that needs to be totally renovated. The outside has a lot of character but remodeled it could be cute! The house is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and it is on a large treed lot with a lot of yard space.

19. 2024-12-17
    listed $125,000 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    HANDY MAN DELUXE! Here is a house that needs to be totally renovated. The outside has a lot of character but remodeled it could be cute! The house is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and it is on a large treed lot with a lot of yard space.

20. 2005-04-27
    soldstatus 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    There has been a fire in the kitchen and needs work. The rest of the house is okay and needs to be cleaned up. Profit potential here!

21. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus
22. 2005-03-24
    historical 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    There has been a fire in the kitchen and needs work. The rest of the house is okay and needs to be cleaned up. Profit potential here!

23. 2005-03-06
    listed $19,900 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    There has been a fire in the kitchen and needs work. The rest of the house is okay and needs to be cleaned up. Profit potential here!

24. 2000-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,029/yr (+$86/mo · 115.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74
• After-tax cash flow: $1,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dublin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817580
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,446
• Composite: 45.4/100
• National rank: #2628
• State rank: #131 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #4899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dublin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,144

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.31%
• Current HPI: 240.5032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+427.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2005-04-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-03-06 Listed $19,900 NTREIS
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $892 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.