410 Lone Star Rd · Trinidad, TX 75163

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1977 1.33 ac lot $91/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · 16% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this great home sitting on more than an acre in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood with no HOA. Open concept layout, includes three large bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a large living area, and a large dining area—perfect for both family living and entertaining guests. Outside, you’ll find a large fenced backyard ideal for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings, along with a two-car garage for added storage and convenience. Only short distance to the lake or DFW amenities. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Acre lot
• Fenced backyard
• No hoa

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SHORT DISTANCE TO LAKE
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.5% in Trinidad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,274 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Trinidad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #684 of 1,141 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,358
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,173
• Equity at exit: $56,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $49,024
• Equity at exit: $75,479

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75163

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,494/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $165,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $169,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Take a look at this great home sitting on more than an acre in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood with no HOA. Open concept layout, includes three large bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a large living area, and a large dining area—perfect for both family living and entertaining guests. Outside, you’ll find a large fenced backyard ideal for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings, along with a two-car garage for added storage and convenience. Only short distance to the lake or DFW amenities. Sold AS-IS.

18. 2025-08-03
    price $205,000
19. 2025-07-22
    listed $210,000 Active
20. 2025-06-26
    historical
21. 2025-04-28
    price $200,000
22. 2025-04-22
    price $205,000
23. 2025-03-30
    listed $210,000 Active
24. 2024-09-05
    soldstatus
25. 2024-08-30
    status Pending
26. 2024-08-30
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2024-08-01
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2024-07-19
    price $178,900
29. 2024-06-10
    listed $179,900 Active
30. 2024-03-13
    historical
31. 2024-02-05
    price $195,000
32. 2024-01-18
    price $225,000
33. 2023-11-22
    listed $243,000 Active
34. 1970-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$526/yr (+$44/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,494
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$344
• After-tax cash flow: $1,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinidad ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843170
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,339
• Composite: 37.29/100
• National rank: #8962
• State rank: #684 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Trinidad

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1274
• US rank: #22143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trinidad, TX
• City population: 2,569
• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Arabic 10% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Current HPI: 211.6125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-30 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-08-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $178,900 NTREIS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-22 Listed $243,000 NTREIS
• 1970-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,494 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.