1704 Taylor St · Lynchburg, VA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $666 – $1,236
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 3.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.4/30.0
- DSCR +9.6/10.0
- ARV discount +7.1/15.0
- 1% rule +6.3/10.0
- Livability +4.5/5.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Rent growth +3.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$129,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
3 bedroom, central a/c, great investment property, priced well below tax assessment, with a little tlc will make good starter or investment property.
Key facts
- New siding
- New water heater
- Historic home
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
- Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories
- Construction: Wood siding construction; Built with crawl space foundation
- Exterior features: Shingle roof
Interior
- Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
- Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Heat pump
- Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
- Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
- Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
- Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Sandusky Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 352 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $26k; list at $130k implies a 392% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.13% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 12.48%
- DSCR
- 1.56
- GRM
- 7.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $128,876
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1113 18th St | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,283 (+0%) | 4mo | $54,500 | $42 | 90 |
| 1800 Floyd St | 0.14mi | 3/1.0 | 1,370 (+7%) | 3mo | $190,000 | $139 | 79 |
| 1205 Fillmore St | 0.40mi | 3/1.0 | 1,370 (+7%) | 3mo | $47,500 | $35 | 67 |
| 1114 Knight St | 0.13mi | 3/2.0 | 1,085 (-15%) | 0mo | $43,600 | $40 | 65 |
| 1417 Floyd St | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,120 (-12%) | 1mo | $203,500 | $182 | 64 |
| 2228 High St | 0.55mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,233 (-3%) | 2mo | $21,500 | $17 | 62 |
| 1900 Park Ave | 0.74mi | 3/1.5 | 1,244 (-2%) | 3mo | $172,000 | $138 | 57 |
| 1930 Vine Street St | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 | 1,110 (-13%) | 6mo | $112,000 | $101 | 56 |
| 1312 Taylor St | 0.26mi | 2/— (-1) | 1,463 (+15%) | 4mo | $25,000 | $17 | 55 |
| 1732 Otey St | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 | 1,176 (-8%) | 6mo | $90,000 | $77 | 52 |
| 1310 9th St St | 0.57mi | 3/1.5 | 1,138 (-11%) | 2mo | $185,000 | $163 | 52 |
| 906 8th Street St | 0.65mi | 3/1.5 | 1,132 (-11%) | 4mo | $135,000 | $119 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 3.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.15×
- Total profit
- $5,348
- Equity at exit
- $19,369
- IRR
- 14.5%
- Equity multiple
- 2.25×
- Total profit
- $45,439
- Equity at exit
- $11,231
Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 24504
- Home prices YoY
- -12.7%
- Rents YoY
- 4.6%
- Active inventory
- 105
- Price-to-rent
- 7.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,473 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$681
- Tax from tax record
- −$50 /mo · $598/yr
- Insurance
- −$54
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$309
- Net cashflow
- $378
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $32,475
- Closing costs
- $3,897
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 37 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1337 | $1,195 | $0.89 | 21d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1380 | $1,800 | $1.30 | 13d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1560 | $1,800 | $1.15 | 13d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1560 | $1,800 | $1.15 | 13d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $1,800 | $1.38 | 21d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1535 | $1,500 | $0.98 | 44d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1168 | $825 | $0.71 | 13d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1300 | $1,250 | $0.96 | 44d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1018 | $875 | $0.86 | 21d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1118 | $1,167 | $1.04 | 21d | 6 | 0.51mi |
| 900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $895 | $0.81 | 13d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1872 | $1,950 | $1.04 | 13d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 1182 | $1,600 | $1.35 | 13d | 6 | 0.62mi |
| 1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1316 | $1,795 | $1.36 | 21d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1714 | $1,295 | $0.76 | 44d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,695 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1138 | $1,595 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1042 | $995 | $0.95 | 13d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 710 Grady St Unit B Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1872 | $795 | $0.42 | 13d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 801 Church St Unit 8 Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 875 | $1,850 | $2.11 | 13d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1340 | $1,295 | $0.97 | 21d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1091 | $1,500 | $1.37 | 44d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 895 | $850 | $0.95 | 44d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 925 | $1,650 | $1.78 | 44d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $1,600 | $1.14 | 44d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 612 Commerce St Lynchburg, VA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 716 | $1,250 | $1.74 | 13d | 2 | 1.00mi |
| 317 Grove St Unit A Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $895 | $0.99 | 44d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 943 | $995 | $1.06 | 21d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 875 | $1,450 | $1.66 | 44d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1434 | $1,895 | $1.32 | 13d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 320 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1736 | $1,595 | $0.92 | 44d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1420 | $1,497 | $1.05 | 44d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 1705 1st St Unit A Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,395 | $1.27 | 21d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1114 | $995 | $0.89 | 44d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1480 | $1,700 | $1.15 | 21d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,300 | $1.44 | 21d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,450 | $0.97 | 21d | 1 | 1.45mi |
Listing history 2 events
-
2026-06-18remarks 699-char remark
-
2026-06-18$129,900 Active 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $598 · $50/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,065 · $89/mo
- Expected delta
- +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 78.1%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,674
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,276
- − Property taxes
- −$598
- − Insurance
- −$650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,414
- − Management
- −$1,414
- − Depreciation
- −$3,779
- Taxable income
- $2,543
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$610
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,930/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lynchburg City Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5102340
- Math proficiency
- 36% ▼ -38.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,097
- Composite
- 40.4/100
- National rank
- #3730
- State rank
- #104 of 131 in VA
Livability — Lynchburg
- Score
- 91/100
- State rank
- #1
- US rank
- #58
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lynchburg, VA
- County
- Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
- City population
- 97,036
- Metro
- Lynchburg, VA
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,632
- Household income
- $52,571
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 552.0
Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 87,977 people
- By 2030
- 93,626 · +6.4%
- By 2040
- 106,145 · +20.7%
- By 2050
- 120,783 · +37.3%
- By 2075
- 162,249 · +84.4%
- By 2100
- 191,358 · +117.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -33.39%
- Current HPI
- 229.4423
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.56%
- Metro
- Lynchburg, VA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
|
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| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
|
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| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
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| Technology | 2 | $15B |
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Price history
+1199.0% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-18 Listed $129,900 LMLS
- 2026-01-15 Listed $119,000 LMLS
- 2020-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $26,400 Public Records
- 2020-11-12 Sold (MLS) $26,400 LMLS
- 2020-10-08 Listed $29,900 LMLS
- 2020-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $13,750 Public Records
- 2010-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
- 1996-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $31,900 Public Records
- 1992-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.9%/yrLatest (2025): $598 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…