1336 Hartshorn Dr · Hermann, MO 65041

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

0.40 ac lot $13/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a corner lot in a private lake community, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Situated in scenic Gasconade County and just minutes from the Gasconade River, the property is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts who enjoy fishing, floating, and quiet country living. The home in its current condition makes it a solid option for investors, renovators, or anyone wanting an affordable getaway with long-term potential. Enjoy the peaceful setting, community lake access, and the charm of river-area living. Property is to be sold "As Is"

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE LAKE COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($803 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.6% in Hermann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#66 in MO, #4,524 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-2,908
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $8,374
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65041

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $326/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $636

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $69,900 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Located on a corner lot in a private lake community, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Situated in scenic Gasconade County and just minutes from the Gasconade River, the property is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts who enjoy fishing, floating, and quiet country living. The home in its current condition makes it a solid option for investors, renovators, or anyone wanting an affordable getaway with long-term potential. Enjoy the peaceful setting, community lake access, and the charm of river-area living. Property is to be sold "As Is"

16. 2026-01-23
    listed $79,999 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Located on a corner lot in a private lake community, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Situated in scenic Gasconade County and just minutes from the Gasconade River, the property is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts who enjoy fishing, floating, and quiet country living. The home in its current condition makes it a solid option for investors, renovators, or anyone wanting an affordable getaway with long-term potential. Enjoy the peaceful setting, community lake access, and the charm of river-area living. Property is to be sold "As Is"

17. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus Closed 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Looking for the right weekend getaway property or permanent lake community home? Here it is! Huge newer garage perfect for keeping the boat and fishing gear for the lake. When you're not on the lake you can sit on the screened in porch and enjoy the beautiful landscaping or enjoy some outdoor games in the large yard. And don't worry this home is also handicap accessible so everyone can enjoy.

18. 2019-03-21
    status Pending 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Looking for the right weekend getaway property or permanent lake community home? Here it is! Huge newer garage perfect for keeping the boat and fishing gear for the lake. When you're not on the lake you can sit on the screened in porch and enjoy the beautiful landscaping or enjoy some outdoor games in the large yard. And don't worry this home is also handicap accessible so everyone can enjoy.

19. 2019-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Looking for the right weekend getaway property or permanent lake community home? Here it is! Huge newer garage perfect for keeping the boat and fishing gear for the lake. When you're not on the lake you can sit on the screened in porch and enjoy the beautiful landscaping or enjoy some outdoor games in the large yard. And don't worry this home is also handicap accessible so everyone can enjoy.

20. 2019-01-29
    listed $32,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Looking for the right weekend getaway property or permanent lake community home? Here it is! Huge newer garage perfect for keeping the boat and fishing gear for the lake. When you're not on the lake you can sit on the screened in porch and enjoy the beautiful landscaping or enjoy some outdoor games in the large yard. And don't worry this home is also handicap accessible so everyone can enjoy.

21. 2018-07-19
    price $45,000
22. 2006-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $326 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 108.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$326
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$771
• − Management: −$771
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$123
• After-tax cash flow: $1,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gasconade County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,397
• Composite: 38.92/100
• National rank: #4090
• State rank: #86 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hermann

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #4524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,559

Population outlook (Gasconade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,190 people
• By 2030: 13,687 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 12,480 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 11,227 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 8,878 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 6,570 · -53.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gasconade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.4% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+58.3 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 307.8
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $79,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-28 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-29 Listed $32,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-19 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $326 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.