1405 Commercial St · Atchison, KS 66002

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1930 Est $116k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• New flooring
• Large kitchen

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.8% in Atchison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#268 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Atchison Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #154 of 169 in KS (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Atchison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atchison County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.00%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 George St	0.53mi	2/1.0	936 (-2%)	1mo	$140,000	$150	72
1037 Laramie St	0.52mi	2/1.0	999 (+5%)	3mo	$55,000	$55	66
1425 Unity St	0.70mi	2/1.0	910 (-5%)	4mo	$168,500	$185	56
1604 Santa Fe St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+11%)	10mo	$129,000	$122	53
1227 Mound Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	980 (+3%)	12mo	$149,900	$153	52
713 N 13 St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,058 (+11%)	11mo	$99,900	$94	50
1601 Santa Fe St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,053 (+10%)	13mo	$125,000	$119	49
911 N 11th St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,028 (+8%)	11mo	$28,900	$28	46
1038 Kearney St	0.56mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (-13%)	4mo	$55,000	$66	44
1019 Atchison St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+12%)	13mo	$210,000	$197	39
613 N 10th St	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	824 (-14%)	14mo	$39,900	$48	33
1021 Riley St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (+14%)	12mo	$135,000	$124	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,693
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $34,319
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66002

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $786/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $692

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $361	+0% $337	+5% $313	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $293	+0% $337	+5% $381	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $359	base $337	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 N 7th St Unit 414 Atchison, KS	2.0	1.0	950	$900	$0.95	2d	1	0.81mi
416 N 7th St Atchison, KS	1.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	2d	1	0.82mi
321 N 4th St Atchison, KS	2.0	1.0	920	$1,000	$1.09	24d	1	0.98mi
413 T St Atchison, KS	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	44d	1	1.13mi
814 S 4th St Unit 2 Atchison, KS	1.0	1.0	680	$900	$1.32	44d	1	1.14mi
1322 N 17th St Atchison, KS	2.0	1.0	920	$925	$1.01	8d	7	1.15mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $786 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$786
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$680
• After-tax cash flow: $3,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atchison Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2003540
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,220
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8922
• State rank: #154 of 169 in KS

Livability — Atchison

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #12122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atchison, KS
• County: Atchison County · 13,276 people
• City population: 13,276
• Metro: Atchison, KS
• Population (ZIP): 13,276
• Household income: $61,364
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Atchison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,056 people
• By 2030: 15,610 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 14,691 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,856 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 12,402 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 10,883 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atchison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.3% · R 67.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.16%
• Current HPI: 192.1037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atchison, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $786 · +44.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.