10 W Miller St · New Castle, PA 16102

$39,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1926 4,573 sqft lot $23/sqft · 34% below area Est $59k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large two-story home offers four generously sized bedrooms and one and a half baths, providing plenty of space for a variety of living needs. The first floor features a spacious living room and dining room, a large kitchen with an island, a convenient first-floor half bath, and laundry room. Upstairs, you’ll find four sizable bedrooms and a full bathroom. The walk-up attic includes two additional rooms, offering excellent potential for storage, home office space, or future finishing. The home is in need of TLC but presents a fantastic opportunity for an investor or owner-occupant ready to bring their vision to life. With its ample square footage and flexible layout, this property offers endless possibilities for renovation and value-add potential.

Key facts

• 4,573 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.9% vs local median 10.1% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harry W Lockley Early Learning Center (775 students, 100% FRL); New Castle Jhs (math 6% / reading 21%, grade F, #482 of 512 statewide, top 94%, 706 students, 100% FRL); New Castle Shs (math 47% / reading 30%, grade F, #280 of 437 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 14% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the New Castle Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $39k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.47%
• DSCR: 5.07
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,385
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -34.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Moravia St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+6%)	4mo	$43,500	$24	68
1801 Hanna St	0.12mi	4/1.0	1,932 (+12%)	15mo	$110,000	$57	62
1605 S Jefferson St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-13%)	12mo	$48,900	$33	61
1918 Morris	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,750 (+1%)	16mo	$219,900	$126	61
9 W Fulton St	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (-7%)	19mo	$16,000	$10	58
28 W Chartes St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	22mo	$60,000	$38	55
407 E Lutton St	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,665 (-4%)	13mo	$53,000	$32	53
1930 Morris St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-11%)	10mo	$143,330	$93	50
1512 S Jefferson St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,488 (-14%)	23mo	$64,000	$43	50
1604 Morris St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,476 (-15%)	18mo	$17,000	$12	49
111 E Tempalena Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,480 (-14%)	20mo	$165,000	$111	34
503 E Lutton St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,492 (-14%)	6mo	$66,000	$44	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $46,752
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $109,200
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16102

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,224/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $409

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $843	+0% $832	+5% $821	+10% $810
Rent	-10% $717	-5% $775	+0% $832	+5% $890	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $852	-0.5pp $842	base $832	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $812

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 S Jefferson St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	46d	1	0.04mi
1708 Moravia St New Castle, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	46d	1	0.23mi
712 E Reynolds St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1182	$975	$0.82	46d	1	0.76mi
1510 Huron Ave New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1560	$1,475	$0.95	46d	1	1.11mi
932 Morton St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,375	$0.95	46d	1	1.17mi
1056 Adams St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $39,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-01-06
    listed $39,000 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    This large two-story home offers four generously sized bedrooms and one and a half baths, providing plenty of space for a variety of living needs. The first floor features a spacious living room and dining room, a large kitchen with an island, a convenient first-floor half bath, and laundry room. Upstairs, you’ll find four sizable bedrooms and a full bathroom. The walk-up attic includes two additional rooms, offering excellent potential for storage, home office space, or future finishing. The home is in need of TLC but presents a fantastic opportunity for an investor or owner-occupant ready to bring their vision to life. With its ample square footage and flexible layout, this property offers endless possibilities for renovation and value-add potential.

19. 2025-04-02
    historical Expired 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Large home offering spacious room sizes, located in New Castle. Currently being used as a rental property.

20. 2025-02-04
    status Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Large home offering spacious room sizes, located in New Castle. Currently being used as a rental property.

21. 2024-04-08
    historical Contingent 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Large home offering spacious room sizes, located in New Castle. Currently being used as a rental property.

22. 2024-04-03
    listed $39,900 Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Large home offering spacious room sizes, located in New Castle. Currently being used as a rental property.

23. 2009-06-24
    price $9,900
24. 2009-06-24
    soldstatus $9,000
25. 2009-04-03
    listed $9,000
26. 1998-11-25
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,224 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,224 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$1,224
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $10,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,400
• After-tax cash flow: $7,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• City population: 30,767
• Population (ZIP): 4,933

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 153.0061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+21.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $39,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-04-02 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-02-04 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2024-04-08 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2024-04-03 Listed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2009-06-24 Sold (MLS) $9,000 West Penn MLS
• 2009-06-24 Price Changed $9,900 West Penn MLS
• 2009-04-03 Listed $9,000 West Penn MLS
• 1998-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,224 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.