2445 Elmwood Dr · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1983 0.55 ac lot $97/sqft · 27% above area Est $99k · 9% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on an oversized lot with access from two sides located near Lake Tawakoni! New roof and addition including the primary suite and bathroom with new tiled shower floor and his-her sinks with granite tops, new vinyl waterproof flooring thru out, new granite kitchen counter tops, open living, split bedrooms, HVAC-Water heater are only a few years old, full size utility with side porch, chain fencing, side by side parking, treed setting, QISD and more!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Oversized lot
• His-her sinks

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• ACCESS FROM TWO SIDES
• NEW ROOF
• PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW TILED SHOWER FLOOR
• HIS-HER SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.65%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,859
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -9.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10818 Riverview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	840 (-9%)	21mo	$89,000	$106	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $33,069
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $90,163
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $799	-5% $773	+0% $748	+5% $722	+10% $697
Rent	-10% $613	-5% $681	+0% $748	+5% $815	+10% $882
Rate	-1.0pp $793	-0.5pp $771	base $748	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $701

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10895 Catfish Dr E Wills Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,700	$1.64	13d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $89,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 494-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $97,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $99,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $109,900 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    REDUCED! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on an oversized lot with access from two sides located near Lake Tawakoni! New roof and addition including the primary suite and bathroom with new tiled shower floor and his-her sinks with granite tops, new vinyl waterproof flooring thru out, new granite kitchen counter tops, open living, split bedrooms, HVAC-Water heater are only a few years old, full size utility with side porch, chain fencing, side by side parking, treed setting, QISD and more!

19. 2026-05-07
    price $119,900 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    REDUCED! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on an oversized lot with access from two sides located near Lake Tawakoni! New roof and addition including the primary suite and bathroom with new tiled shower floor and his-her sinks with granite tops, new vinyl waterproof flooring thru out, new granite kitchen counter tops, open living, split bedrooms, HVAC-Water heater are only a few years old, full size utility with side porch, chain fencing, side by side parking, treed setting, QISD and more!

20. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,900 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    REDUCED! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on an oversized lot with access from two sides located near Lake Tawakoni! New roof and addition including the primary suite and bathroom with new tiled shower floor and his-her sinks with granite tops, new vinyl waterproof flooring thru out, new granite kitchen counter tops, open living, split bedrooms, HVAC-Water heater are only a few years old, full size utility with side porch, chain fencing, side by side parking, treed setting, QISD and more!

21. 2024-08-22
    historical $850
22. 2024-07-20
    listed $850
23. 2024-07-19
    price $70,000
24. 2024-05-03
    listed $80,000 Active
25. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus
26. 2019-09-04
    soldstatus
27. 2019-09-04
    soldstatus
28. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2019-08-16
    status Pending
30. 2019-08-07
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2019-08-01
    status Active
32. 2019-08-01
    historical
33. 2019-05-22
    status Active
34. 2019-04-30
    status Pending
35. 2019-04-09
    price $35,000
36. 2019-02-16
    listed $39,500 Active
37. 2004-12-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$789/yr (+$66/mo · 92.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $7,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+178.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2024-08-22 Rental Removed $850 NTREIS
• 2024-07-20 Listed for Rent $850 NTREIS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-08-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-08-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-08-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-08-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-05-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-04-09 Price Changed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-16 Listed $39,500 NTREIS
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.