403 Fire Lane 26 · Moravia, NY 13118

$299,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 955 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1964 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to peaceful lakefront living! Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath cottage nestled amongst the trees on the east side of Owasco Lake. Perfect as a weekend getaway or a 3-season retreat. Relax on the wrap-around deck overlooking the lake below, as well as gorgeous sunsets and distant views. There’s 60 ft. of direct lake frontage and your own private dock. Inside, the cottage features a warm and inviting layout with comfortable living spaces and fully equipped kitchen. The newly updated open living area creates a relaxed atmosphere. Recent updates include new roof, LVP flooring, insulated ceilings, triple pane windows throughout, French door, new stove and refrigerator. A storage shed pro

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Private dock
• Direct lake frontage

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• DIRECT LAKE FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE DOCK
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• NEWLY UPDATED OPEN LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Waterfront property on Owasco Lake with 60' frontage (dock access, lake frontage); Lot is approximately 0.59 acres (rectangular, agricultural); access is seasonal via private road/right of way

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Circuit breaker electric panel; Holding tank sewer; Water from lake/river and well
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (previously built); Has view; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio/porch deck; Dock access to lake; Partial fencing; Shed(s)/storage; See remarks (additional exterior details)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Space heater; See remarks for additional heating details
• Interior features: Furnished; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.7% in Moravia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#357 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moravia Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #391 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $300k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $295,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $195,006
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $549,592
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13118

• Home prices YoY: 29.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,198/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,697

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $666	-5% $581	+0% $496	+5% $411	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $365	+0% $496	+5% $627	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $572	base $496	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Fire Ln Unit 10A Moravia, NY	3.0	1.5	960	$3,325	$3.46	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $299,900 Active
17. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $100,100
18. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,198 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,198 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,198
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,192
• − Management: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $1,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $5,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moravia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619800
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,991
• Composite: 42.47/100
• National rank: #3215
• State rank: #391 of 590 in NY

Livability — Moravia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #6025

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,514

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 82.97%
• Current HPI: 366.5746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,198 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.