127 Big Thicket Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 5,340 sqft lot $151/sqft · 12% below area Est $251k · 12% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a low-maintenance community with no back neighbors. This property features high ceilings and an open-concept layout, creating a bright and spacious feel throughout. Conveniently situated just minutes from Sugar Land Town Square and several nearby shopping centers, you’ll enjoy easy access to dining, retail, and entertainment.

Key facts

• High ceilings
• No back neighbors
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE COMMUNITY
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO RETAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Brazos; Annual association fee of $375

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each approx. 12 x 10); Another first-floor bedroom (approx. 12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Carpet flooring; Tile flooring; Seven rooms total

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,087 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,944
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -12.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5751 Wandering Creek Dr Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-1%)	6mo	$225,000	$157	85
127 Thunder Basin Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-1%)	15mo	$265,000	$184	79
250 Saddleback Springs Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-1%)	10mo	$249,990	$174	78
115 Anvil Rock Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	74
5767 Wandering Creek Drive Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+6%)	7mo	$220,000	$142	73
131 Thunder Basin Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-12%)	12mo	$238,500	$186	63
5714 Picacho Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-14%)	21mo	$265,000	$211	53
118 Anvil Rock Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-14%)	24mo	$239,900	$191	52
6423 N Shore Bnd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+4%)	21mo	$285,000	$188	49
5815 Prade Ranch Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+15%)	8mo	$389,999	$233	48
530 Arbor Green Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+5%)	23mo	$292,000	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-56,469
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-89,729
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,397/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $177,087

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5131 Williams Way Blvd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,968	$2.14	2d	64	0.54mi
6826 Blue Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,769	$1.12	43d	1	1.17mi
6915 Renfro Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,745	$1.15	20d	1	1.18mi
22235 Davenport Downs Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,266	$1.29	5d	1	1.26mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,255	$2.43	12d	10	1.30mi
21811 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 21848 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,655	$1.70	12d	1	1.30mi
21811 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 21868 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,398	$1.44	10d	1	1.30mi
21811 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 2174 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,622	$1.67	17d	1	1.30mi
21811 Wildwood Park Rd Apt 424 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,374	$1.41	5d	1	1.30mi
21811 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 2112 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,366	$1.41	2d	1	1.30mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 22188 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,855	$1.34	43d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 22212 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,395	$1.44	43d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 2174 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,379	$1.42	10d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 424 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,355	$1.39	5d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 3112 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,812	$1.31	2d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 2112 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,347	$1.39	2d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 3174 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,844	$1.34	10d	1	1.31mi
22155 Wildwood Park Rd Unit 3047 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,855	$1.34	11d	1	1.34mi
22161 Wildwood Park Rd Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,347	$1.39	43d	1	1.37mi
21817 Wildwood Park Rd Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,660	$1.37	43d	1	1.45mi
1601 Crabb River Rd Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	18d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 375-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 375-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $220,000 Active 375-char remark
4. 2006-04-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,397 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,397 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,397
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2006-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,397 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.