Yellowstone Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$131,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 829 Days on market

Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Yellowstone!! This model has a huge covered front patio that would be perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful community. Upon entering the home, you will find an enormous living area, open concept kitchen, a section for a large dining room table, walk-in pantry, and a separate laundry room! You will LOVE how spacious this layout is. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom that has double sinks, and a shower/tub combo. This is a 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home located on a standard lot in the brand new community, The Landing at Pearland. The model comes standard with a 2-car driveway, sidewalk leading up to the covered front patio, 4x4 back deck, 8x10 storage shed, 10-year structural warranty, 7-year mechanical warranty, full landscaping package, and access to all of the resort style communities!! Land is leased, not owned.

Key facts

• Listed 828 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (25.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $912 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 829 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,518 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 829 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-35,632
• Equity at exit: $19,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,185
• Equity at exit: $11,404

Cash invested: $36,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $98,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-185	+0% $-231	+5% $-276	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-307	+0% $-231	+5% $-154	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-197	base $-231	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,975
• Closing costs: $3,957
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2900 Pearland Pkwy Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,317	$2.18	0d	13	0.15mi
2918 Pearland Pkwy Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	45d	1	0.32mi
2502 Alexander Ln Pearland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,399	$1.67	3d	13	0.40mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2959 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,323	$1.49	0d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2935 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,111	$1.55	0d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 424 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,339	$1.50	7d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2047 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,374	$1.54	12d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2047 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,364	$1.53	0d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 3047 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,127	$1.56	19d	1	0.47mi
3196 John Lizer Rd Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,934	$1.46	13d	1	0.49mi
2525 Barry Rose Rd Pearland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,679	$1.92	14d	10	0.55mi
2691 Old Alvin Rd Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	924	$1,445	$1.56	45d	1	0.59mi
2317 Parkview Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,450	$0.82	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $131,900 Active 829 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $131,900 Active 826 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $131,900 Active 825 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $131,900 Active 824 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $131,900 Active 823 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $131,900 Active 821 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $131,900 Active 817 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $131,900 Active 816 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $131,900 Active 815 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $131,900 Active 812 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $131,900 Active 811 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $131,900 Active 810 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $131,900 Active 809 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $131,900 Active 808 DOM
15. 2024-08-02
    status Active 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    Introducing the Yellowstone!! This model has a huge covered front patio that would be perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful community. Upon entering the home, you will find an enormous living area, open concept kitchen, a section for a large dining room table, walk-in pantry, and a separate laundry room! You will LOVE how spacious this layout is. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom that has double sinks, and a shower/tub combo. This is a 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home located on a standard lot in the brand new community, The Landing at Pearland. The model comes standard with a 2-car driveway, sidewalk leading up to the covered front patio, 4x4 back deck, 8x10 storage shed, 10-year structural warranty, 7-year mechanical warranty, full landscaping package, and access to all of the resort style communities!! Land is leased, not owned.

16. 2024-07-23
    historical 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    Introducing the Yellowstone!! This model has a huge covered front patio that would be perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful community. Upon entering the home, you will find an enormous living area, open concept kitchen, a section for a large dining room table, walk-in pantry, and a separate laundry room! You will LOVE how spacious this layout is. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom that has double sinks, and a shower/tub combo. This is a 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home located on a standard lot in the brand new community, The Landing at Pearland. The model comes standard with a 2-car driveway, sidewalk leading up to the covered front patio, 4x4 back deck, 8x10 storage shed, 10-year structural warranty, 7-year mechanical warranty, full landscaping package, and access to all of the resort style communities!! Land is leased, not owned.

17. 2024-03-05
    listed $131,900 Active 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    Introducing the Yellowstone!! This model has a huge covered front patio that would be perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful community. Upon entering the home, you will find an enormous living area, open concept kitchen, a section for a large dining room table, walk-in pantry, and a separate laundry room! You will LOVE how spacious this layout is. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom that has double sinks, and a shower/tub combo. This is a 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home located on a standard lot in the brand new community, The Landing at Pearland. The model comes standard with a 2-car driveway, sidewalk leading up to the covered front patio, 4x4 back deck, 8x10 storage shed, 10-year structural warranty, 7-year mechanical warranty, full landscaping package, and access to all of the resort style communities!! Land is leased, not owned.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,837
• Taxable loss: −$4,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Yellowstone model manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern finishes, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor lighting system — Improved lighting can make the property more inviting and safer at night.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor lighting system — Improved lighting can make the property more inviting and safer at night. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-05 Listed $131,900 Zillow