5570 Connie Jean Rd #21 · Jacksonville, FL 32222

$21,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 280 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 280 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (modified Apr 28, 2026)
• Financial info: List price $21,400

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central air
• Home design: Spec plan: 87580
• Exterior features: Living area of 896 (living space)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 60.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $151 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $657 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $19,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 60.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 194.87%
• DSCR: 9.67
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.68×
• Total profit: $59,342
• Equity at exit: $3,265

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.39×
• Total profit: $131,176
• Equity at exit: $1,894

Cash invested: $6,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32222

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $192

Max offer price $21,900

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,011	-5% $1,003	+0% $996	+5% $988	+10% $981
Rent	-10% $881	-5% $938	+0% $996	+5% $1,053	+10% $1,110
Rate	-1.0pp $1,007	-0.5pp $1,001	base $996	+0.5pp $990	+1.0pp $984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,475
• Closing costs: $657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5565 Connie Jean Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	630	$1,100	$1.75	2d	8	0.19mi
9541 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,390	$1.34	2d	21	0.76mi
9455 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,420	$1.30	2d	18	0.86mi
9359 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,214	$1.43	2d	1	1.03mi
4910 Samaritan Way Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,758	$1.82	3d	16	1.16mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $21,900 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $21,900 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $21,900 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $21,900 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $21,900 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $21,400 Active 271 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,227
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$637
• Taxable income: $12,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,960
• After-tax cash flow: $8,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,258
• Household income: $85,649
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.56%
• Current HPI: 257.6466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B