115 Gardenia Way · Leesburg, FL 34748

$149,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Appointed Home in Desirable Gardenia Way – Move-In Ready with Modern Upgrades! Welcome to this beautifully maintained and thoughtfully upgraded home located in the peaceful and sought-after Gardenia Way. Offering a perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality, this spacious 1,434 sq. ft. home is ideal for those seeking move-in-ready living with all the right updates. Step inside to discover a spacious layout featuring two bedrooms with generous walk-in closets, remodeled bathrooms, and a fully upgraded kitchen (2018) boasting contemporary appliances and stylish finishes that make cooking and entertaining a joy. Recent improvements ensure peace of mind for years to come, including a freshly coated roof (2024), new HVAC system (2021), upgraded energy-efficient windows, and new vapor barriers for enhanced insulation and comfort. This home also offers multiple room additions, including a bright and airy sunroom, a dedicated laundry room, and a versatile workshop, perfect for hobbies, storage, or a home office setup. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy modern living in a well-established and beautiful neighborhood. .. .. .. .. Hawthorne at Leesburg is an active, resident owned, 55+ cooperative, waterfront, gated community, with beautifully landscaped grounds, lakes with illuminated fountains and a relaxing and comfortable gazebo. The affordable monthly maintenance fee of $397 includes water, sewer, lawn mowing, private emergency services and storage space for recreational vehicles, boats, trailers and much more! The beautiful clubhouse is complete with a full-time program coordinator, more than 100 different activities and seating for 550. It has a hospitality lounge, card rooms, craft rooms, billiard room, fitness center, library, fine arts room and many more. There is excellent fishing, outdoor geo-thermally heated pool and two enclosed therapeutic pools. Hawthorne boasts a private marina monitored by an electronic security system with over 120 boat slips and access to the Harris Chain of Lakes and beyond.

Key facts

• Gated community
• New roof coating
• New flooring

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE HARRIS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF COATING
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $150k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,252
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,130
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6015 Nightjar Ct Okahumpka, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,495	$1.45	11d	1	1.12mi
20043 Royal Tern Ct Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1603	$1,859	$1.16	11d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 686-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $149,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$6/yr ($0/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,235
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $4,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $5,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $149,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-10 Sold (MLS) $83,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,235 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.