2923 Sweet Pepper Way · Parrish, FL 34219

$420,597

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3-car garage $186/sqft · 17% below area Est $505k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this spacious 2,267 square foot single-story home and discover a thoughtful layout designed for both comfort and style. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances and designer cabinetry, all seamlessly connected to a bright dining area and breakfast nook. The Great Room flows effortlessly to the lanai, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. Retreat to the owner's suite with its spa-like bathroom, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family or guests. Enjoy the convenience of a three-car garage with a hurricane-rated door, keyless entry and extra storage.

Key facts

• Open space kitchen
• Breakfast nook
• Dining room

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• OPEN SPACE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• GREAT ROOM
• LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $421k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-581 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,328 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,869
• List price: $420,597
• Delta: -16.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8521 Abalone Loop	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,520 (+11%)	45mo	$497,516	$197	43
10410 Spring Tide Way	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-2)	1,889 (-17%)	40mo	$624,670	$331	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-113,769
• Equity at exit: $62,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-179,909
• Equity at exit: $36,366

Cash invested: $117,767 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active
• Median asking: $357,900 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 16 d
• This list price: 73% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +48.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,309/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,679

Max offer price $336,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-436	+0% $-581	+5% $-727	+10% $-872
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-698	+0% $-581	+5% $-465	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-474	base $-581	+0.5pp $-690	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,149
• Closing costs: $12,618
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $428,597

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Tivoli planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Address: 2923 Sweet Pepper Way, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 2267Spec home (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $420,597 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $420,597 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $420,597 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $420,597 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $420,597 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $420,597 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $420,597 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $420,597 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $420,597 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $420,597 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $420,597 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $420,597 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $420,597 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $420,597 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $420,597 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $420,597 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $420,597 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $420,597 Active 89 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $420,597 Active 88 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $420,597 Active 87 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $420,597 Active 86 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $420,597 Active 85 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $420,597 Active 83 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $420,597 Active 82 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $420,597 Active 81 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $428,597 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $428,597 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $428,597 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $428,597 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $428,597 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $428,597 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $428,597 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $428,597 Active 72 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $428,597 Active 70 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $428,597 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $428,597 Active 67 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $428,597 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    remarks 699-char remark
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $428,597 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $428,597 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $428,597 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $428,597 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $428,597 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $428,597 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $428,597 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $428,597 Active 54 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $428,597 Active 53 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $428,597 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $428,597 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $428,597 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,560
• − Property taxes: −$6,309
• − Insurance: −$2,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,826
• − Management: −$2,826
• − Depreciation: −$12,236
• Taxable loss: −$14,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,335–$34,005 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior walls and cleaning the windows to enhance its curb appeal and overall appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Clean the windows — Clean windows improve natural light and the home's overall appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $428,597

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Tivoli planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Address: 2923 Sweet Pepper Way, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 2267Spec home (new construction)