11545 Falcon Crest Way · Tuscaloosa, AL 35453

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2004 0.38 ac lot Est $190k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable, 3 bed/2 bath home located between Tuscaloosa & Brookwood, in an area eligible for USDA 100% financing! Kitchen has lots of shelf & cabinet space, Stainless steel appliances & a breakfast bar. The master suite features a walk-in closet & an attached bathroom. 2 car carport, covered front porch & spacious fenced-in backyard with a pergola, and sitting area. Brookwood schools & located 15 minutes or less from schools, DCH, & the University of Alabama. Don't miss out on this great home, schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Firepit
• Cedar shutters
• Pergola

Tags

• CEDAR SHUTTERS
• SHIPLAP ACCENTS
• BAR STYLE COUNTER SPACE
• PATIO
• PERGOLA
• FIREPIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($218/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookwood Elementary School (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 604 students, 71% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,124 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,660
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11527 E Falcon Crest Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,308 (0%)	14mo	$190,000	$145	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-32,945
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-27,565
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35453

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $893/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-11
   soldstatus $205,000
2. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-04
   listed $209,900 Active
4. 2021-12-23
   soldstatus $173,000
5. 2021-12-22
   soldstatus $173,000 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Adorable, 3 bed/2 bath home located between Tuscaloosa & Brookwood, in an area eligible for USDA 100% financing! Kitchen has lots of shelf & cabinet space, Stainless steel appliances & a breakfast bar. The master suite features a walk-in closet & an attached bathroom. 2 car carport, covered front porch & spacious fenced-in backyard with a pergola, and sitting area. Brookwood schools & located 15 minutes or less from schools, DCH, & the University of Alabama. Don't miss out on this great home, schedule a showing today!

6. 2021-11-15
   listed $169,900 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Adorable, 3 bed/2 bath home located between Tuscaloosa & Brookwood, in an area eligible for USDA 100% financing! Kitchen has lots of shelf & cabinet space, Stainless steel appliances & a breakfast bar. The master suite features a walk-in closet & an attached bathroom. 2 car carport, covered front porch & spacious fenced-in backyard with a pergola, and sitting area. Brookwood schools & located 15 minutes or less from schools, DCH, & the University of Alabama. Don't miss out on this great home, schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$893
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $1,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 134,228
• Population (ZIP): 12,522

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.62%
• Current HPI: 186.9504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+20.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-05 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $209,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-22 Sold (MLS) $173,000 WAMLS
• 2021-11-15 Listed $169,900 WAMLS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $893 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.