1918 Harrison Ave #3 · Centralia, WA 98531

$257,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Golden Estates, a desirable 55+ community in Centralia! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfortable, easy living with thoughtful features throughout. Both bathrooms include convenient walk-in showers, while the spacious kitchen provides plenty of room for cooking and gathering. The inviting living areas create a warm and comfortable atmosphere to relax and entertain. Step outside to enjoy the private back patio and beautifully landscaped yard. Additional amenities include a 2-car garage plus off-street parking for two more vehicles. Residents of Golden Estates also enjoy access to a wonderful community clubhouse and party room. Ideally located near

Key facts

• Community clubhouse
• Access to i-5
• Private back patio

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• PARTY ROOM
• ACCESS TO I-5

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential manufactured home; Structure type: Manufactured house; Calculated building area: 1512 (source: public records)
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $525; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Golden Estates senior community; Manufactured home park amenities include clubhouse and high-speed internet availability; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage (has garage)
• Utilities: Public water (City of Centralia); Public sewer (City of Centralia); Electric service (City of Centralia power company)
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Has view; Patio/porch/deck; Awnings; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; No central cooling indicated
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Jetted/soaking tub; Bath off primary; Awnings; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped
• Laundry & utility: Electric energy source; Heat pump (heating)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-491/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $257k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $197,531 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,329
• Equity at exit: $38,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,272
• Equity at exit: $22,221

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,759/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,027

Max offer price $249,771

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $32	+0% $-41	+5% $-114	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-119	+0% $-41	+5% $37	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $24	base $-41	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1413 Nora Ln Centralia, WA	2.0	3.0	1315	$1,850	$1.41	44d	1	0.44mi
1413 Nora Ln Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	2.5	1315	$1,850	$1.41	44d	1	0.44mi
2711 Niki Ln Bldg D8 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	44d	1	0.90mi
2711 Niki LN Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	0.95mi
683 Bryden Ave Unit A Centralia, WA	4.0	2.5	1944	$2,900	$1.49	44d	1	1.02mi
2999 Harrison Ave Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	22d	1	1.05mi
2991 Yaro Ln Unit A Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $257,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $257,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $257,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$759/yr (+$63/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$1,759
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$5,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+179.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $257,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-13 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Price Changed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Price Changed $82,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-04 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-08 Price Changed $84,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-31 Price Changed $89,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-12 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-06 Listed $92,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,759 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.