3959 SW 129th St · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2005 10,019 sqft lot Est $259k · 15% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this bright, spacious & Income-Producing Opportunity in Marion Oaks! Well-maintained 3BR/2BA/2-car garage CBS home an ideal opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, and retirees alike. Offering 1,405 square feet of comfortable living space, the open floor plan and cathedral ceilings create a bright, airy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Step outside to your screened porch and enjoy everything Florida living has to offer. A brand-new roof and 2-car garage add lasting value and peace of mind. Situated in a super neighborhood among both new and established homes in an all-ages family community, you'll love the walkability to the Cross Florida Greenway Trail for out

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Cathedral ceilings
• Backyard

Tags

• INCOME-PRODUCING OPPORTUNITY
• SCREENED-ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• NEW ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R1); Property type: Single family residence
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot (approx. 80 x 125)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($754/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion Oaks Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 939 students, 65% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,108 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,520
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4121 SW 130th Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+2%)	4mo	$262,759	$184	79
3694 SW 131st Place Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-9%)	4mo	$265,000	$207	64
4126 SW 132nd Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+9%)	12mo	$272,000	$177	49
4592 SW 132nd St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,371 (-2%)	21mo	$282,990	$206	47
12799 SW 31st Avenue Rd #07	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+8%)	19mo	$274,899	$182	40
4013 SW 134th St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+15%)	23mo	$264,900	$164	33
13376 SW 33rd Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+11%)	20mo	$287,000	$184	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,515
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-50,245
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,468/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,942

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $125	+0% $63	+5% $1	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-17	+0% $63	+5% $143	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $119	base $63	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3892 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	0.16mi
3971 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	15d	1	0.17mi
4052 SW 132nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.43mi
3995 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	23d	1	0.51mi
4428 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	0.55mi
12732 SW 33rd Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	15d	1	0.59mi
13401 SW 43rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	15d	1	0.64mi
4691 SW 129th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	23d	1	0.68mi
13690 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	15d	1	0.74mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Unit NA Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,685	$1.06	23d	1	0.78mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,725	$1.08	15d	1	0.78mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	15d	1	0.84mi
13410 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	23d	1	0.88mi
13416 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,199	$1.23	15d	1	0.90mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	0.94mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	23d	1	1.00mi
251 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	23d	1	1.23mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	15d	1	1.37mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	23d	1	1.38mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $219,900 Active
18. 2023-04-26
    status Pending
19. 2023-04-26
    historical
20. 2023-03-03
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,468 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,468 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,468
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$2,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $1,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-03 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,468 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.