515 S Oak St · Paoli, IN 47454

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2007 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch style manufactured home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a split floor plan. It has an open concept living area, covered front porch, and a storage shed. This home has solid potential for rental income or for resale and it is ideally located near the Paoli schools

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Storage shed
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($642/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Paoli — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#471 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Paoli Community School Corporation (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #200 of 301 in IN (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Throop Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #577 of 994 statewide, top 59%, 712 students, 61% FRL); Paoli Jr & Sr High School (math 19% / reading 50%, grade F, #270 of 369 statewide, top 77%, 561 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,224 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
424 S Sycamore St	0.07mi	3/1.0	980 (-9%)	18mo	$38,000	$39	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,651
• Equity at exit: $53,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $52,898
• Equity at exit: $79,427

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47454

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $698/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $90	+0% $54	+5% $17	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $11	+0% $54	+5% $96	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $87	base $54	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $129,900 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Ranch style manufactured home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a split floor plan. It has an open concept living area, covered front porch, and a storage shed. This home has solid potential for rental income or for resale and it is ideally located near the Paoli schools

19. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $118,500 Closed 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

20. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $118,500

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

21. 2023-03-15
    historical Active Under Contract 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

22. 2022-12-06
    price $129,900 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

23. 2022-10-20
    price $134,900 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

24. 2022-09-29
    listed $139,700 Active 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    VERY FEW PROPERTIES ARE TRULY MOVE IN READY THESE DAYS! THIS HOME IS TURNKEY AND READY TO DELIVER FURNITURE DAY OF CLOSING! FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHROOMS WITH A LOVELY LOT IN THE CITY OF PAOLI. ENJOY THE LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK OR RELAX IN THE PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA WHILE ENTERTAINING GUESTS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES SOME NEWER APPLIANCES AND A ONE YEAR HSA HOME WARRANTY FOR PEACE OF MIND. 12X10 UTILITY SHED PROVIDES STORAGE FOR LAWN EQUIPMENT OR EXTRA BELONGINGS. THE NEWER METAL ROOF IS STILL UNDER ORIGINAL WARRANTY AS WELL. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND LOCATION. PROPERTY COULD QUALIFY FOR 100% FINANCING OPTIONS.

25. 2020-03-23
    soldstatus $78,000
26. 2020-03-19
    soldstatus $78,000
27. 2019-10-04
    soldstatus $40,000
28. 2019-09-19
    listed $89,900
29. 2019-09-12
    listed $79,900
30. 2017-02-14
    soldstatus $40,000
31. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $45,000
32. 2012-01-24
    soldstatus $41,827
33. 2012-01-24
    soldstatus $41,827

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$698
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paoli Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808640
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,333
• Composite: 29.18/100
• National rank: #6571
• State rank: #200 of 301 in IN

Livability — Paoli

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #16678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paoli, IN
• Population (ZIP): 7,529

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,948 people
• By 2030: 18,479 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,387 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 16,301 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 14,361 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 12,594 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.1% · R 75.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.2pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+14.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 207.3937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+210.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $129,900 IRMLS
• 2023-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2023-04-14 Sold (MLS) $118,500 IRMLS
• 2023-03-15 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $129,900 IRMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $134,900 IRMLS
• 2022-09-29 Listed $139,700 IRMLS
• 2020-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-19 Sold (MLS) $78,000 SIRA
• 2019-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-19 Listed $89,900 IRMLS
• 2019-09-12 Listed $79,900 SIRA
• 2017-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $41,827 Public Records
• 2012-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $41,827 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $698 · +57.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.