204 Brandon Rd · Hoyt Lakes, MN 55750

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1956 0.65 ac lot Est $93k · 50% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

Key facts

• One-level living
• Refreshed bathrooms
• Large storage room

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS SECOND LIVING AREA
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS
• OVERSIZED 2-STALL GARAGE
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM
• ROOF WILL BE REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-249/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#270 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Mesabi East School District (rural): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in MN (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $140k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,505 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,312
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Leeds Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$93,000	$108	74
202 Dorchester Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	950 (+10%)	23mo	$80,000	$84	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-23,988
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,580
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55750

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $136,240

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $19	+0% $-21	+5% $-60	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-67	+0% $-21	+5% $25	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $15	base $-21	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $139,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-04-13
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

13. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

14. 2026-04-01
    historical Contingent - Inspection
15. 2026-03-22
    listed $139,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

16. 2026-03-22
    listed $139,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

17. 2026-03-22
    listed $139,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Move-in ready and fully updated, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home checks all the boxes! Enjoy true one-level living with 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main floor. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious second living area, an additional bedroom (without egress), and a second bath—perfect for guests, a home office, or extra hangout space. Major updates include plumbing, electrical, flooring, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms, giving you peace of mind from day one. The oversized 2-stall garage and large storage room add even more functionality. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to downsize, this one is a perfect fit. Bonus: roof will be replaced with an acceptable offer!

18. 2014-11-28
    historical
19. 2014-11-21
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 2014-10-27
    price $24,500
21. 2014-08-07
    listed $25,000 Active
22. 2014-04-17
    listed $24,500
23. 2005-06-06
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2003-11-22
    soldstatus $48,251

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesabi East School District
• NCES district ID: 2791450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,546
• Composite: 31.69/100
• National rank: #5922
• State rank: #240 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hoyt Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hoyt Lakes, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,078

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 19% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.12%
• Current HPI: 171.9924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+189.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listed $139,900 RAOR
• 2026-03-22 Listed $139,900 LSAR
• 2026-03-22 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $20,000 RAOR
• 2014-10-27 Price Changed $24,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-07 Listed $25,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-17 Listed $24,500 RAOR
• 2005-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,251 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,790 · +160.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.