3 Watts St Ext St · Gretna, VA
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +24.4/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.9/10.0
- Schools +6.6/10.0
- 1% rule +6.3/10.0
- Appreciation +6.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
$114,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Step inside this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that's full of charm and modern updates. Nearly everything is new from the windows and vinyl siding to the sleek LVP floors throughout. Enjoy a stylish new kitchen featuring all-new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, along with updated lighting and finishes in every room. Energy-efficient mini splits provide comfortable heating and cooling year-round. Outside, you'll find a cute backyard and plenty of off-street parking in the driveway. The town is also installing a brand-new park nearby, adding even more value to this convenient location. With its fresh updates and inviting feel, this move-in-ready home is ready to welcome its new owner!
Key facts
- New kitchen
- Vinyl siding
- Off-street parking
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
- Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#157 in VA, #4,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
- Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
- Zoned schools: Gretna Elementary (math 72% / reading 80%, grade A, #202 of 1,108 statewide, top 19%, 460 students, 83% FRL); Gretna Middle (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 397 students, 81% FRL); Gretna High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 535 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 47% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $3k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
- Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $25k; list at $115k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.13% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.73%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.69%
- DSCR
- 1.39
- GRM
- 7.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $175,695
- List price
- $114,900
- Delta
- -34.60%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 503 Henry St | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,064 (-3%) | 6mo | $217,500 | $204 | 67 |
| 210 Center St | 0.18mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,019 (-7%) | 24mo | $157,000 | $154 | 55 |
| 105 Leftwich St St | 0.41mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 1,200 (+10%) | 4mo | $125,000 | $104 | 54 |
| 202 Dalton St | 0.39mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,272 (+16%) | 8mo | $147,000 | $116 | 45 |
| 402 Leftwich St | 0.41mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,295 (+18%) | 8mo | $91,000 | $70 | 44 |
| 1100 N Music St | 0.99mi | 3/1.0 | 1,222 (+12%) | 5mo | $178,000 | $146 | 42 |
| 313 Payne St | 0.39mi | 3/1.0 | 960 (-12%) | 24mo | $170,693 | $178 | 42 |
| 117 Hollyberry Dr | 0.66mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 912 (-17%) | 5mo | $165,000 | $181 | 35 |
| 105 Highland Rd | 0.78mi | 3/1.5 | 1,300 (+19%) | 13mo | $233,500 | $180 | 27 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
1.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 12.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.69×
- Total profit
- $22,240
- Equity at exit
- $44,794
- IRR
- 15.7%
- Equity multiple
- 3.08×
- Total profit
- $66,827
- Equity at exit
- $64,103
Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 1 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $152,500 ($124/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 118 d
- This list price
- 33% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +29.5% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 24557
- Home prices YoY
- 1.2%
- Active inventory
- 107
- Price-to-rent
- 7.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,300 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$603
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
- Insurance
- −$48
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$273
- Net cashflow
- $233
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $312 | -5% $273 | +0% $233 | +5% $193 | +10% $154 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $130 | -5% $182 | +0% $233 | +5% $284 | +10% $336 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $291 | -0.5pp $262 | base $233 | +0.5pp $203 | +1.0pp $173 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,725
- Closing costs
- $3,447
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192 Peoples Supply Rd Gretna, VA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1370 | $1,300 | $0.95 | 93d | 1 | 0.62mi |
Listing history 50 events
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2026-08-08days on market $114,900 Active 176 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $114,900 Active 175 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $114,900 Active 174 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $114,900 Active 173 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $114,900 Active 172 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $114,900 Active 171 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $114,900 Active 168 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $114,900 Active 167 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $114,900 Active 166 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $114,900 Active 164 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $114,900 Active 162 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $114,900 Active 161 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $114,900 Active 160 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $114,900 Active 159 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $114,900 Active 158 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $114,900 Active 155 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $114,900 Active 153 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $114,900 Active 152 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $114,900 Active 151 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $114,900 Active 150 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $114,900 Active 149 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $114,900 Active 148 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $114,900 Active 147 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $114,900 Active 146 DOM
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2026-07-08days on market $114,900 Active 145 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $114,900 Active 144 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $114,900 Active 143 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $114,900 Active 142 DOM
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2026-07-04days on market $114,900 Active 141 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $114,900 Active 140 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $114,900 Active 139 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $114,900 Active 138 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $114,900 Active 137 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $114,900 Active 136 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $114,900 Active 135 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $114,900 Active 134 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $114,900 Active 133 DOM
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2026-06-26days on market $114,900 Active 132 DOM
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2026-06-22days on market $114,900 Active 129 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $114,900 Active 128 DOM
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2026-06-19days on market $114,900 Active 126 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $114,900 Active 125 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $114,900 Active 124 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $114,900 Active 123 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $114,900 Active 122 DOM
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2026-06-14days on market $114,900 Active 120 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $114,900 Active 119 DOM
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2026-06-10days on market $114,900 Active 117 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $114,900 Active 116 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $114,900 Active 115 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,600
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,436
- − Property taxes
- −$1,724
- − Insurance
- −$574
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,248
- − Management
- −$1,248
- − Depreciation
- −$3,343
- Taxable income
- $1,027
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$247
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,549/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos
This move-in-ready home features modern updates throughout, including new cabinets, flooring, and HVAC, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.
Components & finishes AI
Value-add opportunities
- Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Both HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pittsylvania County Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5102940
- Math proficiency
- 65% ▼ -22.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 78% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $41,672
- Composite
- 59.77/100
- National rank
- #900
- State rank
- #22 of 131 in VA
Livability — Gretna
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #157
- US rank
- #4927
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Gretna, VA
- County
- Pittsylvania · 58,725 people
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,832
- Household income
- $44,948
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 4% of renters
Population outlook (Pittsylvania County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 58,725 people
- By 2030
- 56,388 · -4.0%
- By 2040
- 51,088 · -13.0%
- By 2050
- 45,875 · -21.9%
- By 2075
- 36,555 · -37.8%
- By 2100
- 28,288 · -51.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (76%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 76% Black 20% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 99% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pittsylvania
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.1% · R 71.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -43.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+27.5 2008: R+24.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 1.91%
- Current HPI
- 160.7742
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
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| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
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| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
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| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
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| Technology | 2 | $15B |
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Price history
+475.2% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-07 Price Changed $114,900 LMLS
- 2026-04-03 Price Changed $124,900 LMLS
- 2026-03-11 Price Changed $129,900 LMLS
- 2026-02-13 Listed $134,900 LMLS
- 2025-10-11 Listed $142,500 LMLS
- 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) $25,000 LMLS
- 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) $25,000 DRRAR
- 2022-11-20 Pending — LMLS
- 2022-10-26 Listed $40,000 LMLS
- 2022-10-26 Listed $40,000 DRRAR
- 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,975 Public Records
Property tax history
-3.8%/yrLatest (2025): $32 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…