1513 Garfield Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1905 7,841 sqft lot $78/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready home with a new heat pump offering a functional layout with two bedrooms upstairs and an additional bedroom in the basement. The main level features a full bathroom, kitchen and comfortable living space. Conveniently located near downtown Lynchburg, this property is ready for its next owner to move right in and enjoy.

Key facts

• New heat pump
• Full bathroom
• Functional layout

Tags

• NEW HEAT PUMP
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FULL BATHROOM
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.18 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built with a partial finished lower level
• Exterior features: Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating)
• Interior features: Storm windows; Partial walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lynchburg City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $125k implies a 366% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.98%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,411
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -0.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Wadsworth St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-2%)	0mo	$210,000	$134	73
1006 Buchanan St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,645 (+3%)	1mo	$239,000	$145	66
899 Brook St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,441 (-10%)	7mo	$149,000	$103	53
1205 Fillmore St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,370 (-14%)	3mo	$47,500	$35	51
1206 10th St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,605 (+0%)	6mo	$199,900	$125	51
1800 Floyd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,370 (-14%)	3mo	$190,000	$139	48
1312 Taylor St	0.65mi	2/— (-1)	1,463 (-9%)	4mo	$25,000	$17	47
2307 Cobbs St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,425 (-11%)	6mo	$148,000	$104	47
1009 16th St. St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,730 (+8%)	8mo	$189,900	$110	46
404 Euclid Ave	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,716 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$143	45
1027 Knight St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,387 (-13%)	6mo	$95,000	$68	39
1321 Taylor St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+13%)	6mo	$136,000	$75	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,754
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $28,828
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	43d	1	0.14mi
710 Grady St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1872	$795	$0.42	13d	1	0.15mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,167	$1.04	21d	6	0.26mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	43d	1	0.39mi
1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1168	$825	$0.71	13d	1	0.42mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	43d	1	0.44mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.46mi
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.46mi
320 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,595	$0.92	43d	1	0.49mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.50mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.53mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	0.55mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.59mi
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	43d	1	0.59mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	21d	1	0.62mi
630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1434	$1,895	$1.32	13d	1	0.62mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	43d	1	0.66mi
1110 11th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,450	$0.72	13d	1	0.73mi
1701 Grace St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,495	$0.69	13d	1	0.78mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	13d	1	0.81mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	21d	1	0.88mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	13d	1	0.89mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	21d	1	0.89mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	44d	1	0.92mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	43d	1	0.96mi
2920 Richmond St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1472	$1,695	$1.15	21d	1	0.96mi
1705 1st St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	21d	1	1.03mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	43d	1	1.04mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	21d	1	1.04mi
310 Yeardley Ave Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1888	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	1.11mi
1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1182	$1,600	$1.35	13d	6	1.26mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$965	$1.04	43d	2	1.27mi
206 Connecticut Ave Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	2180	$1,650	$0.76	21d	1	1.27mi
101 Thomas Rd Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1530	$1,395	$0.91	43d	1	1.31mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $129,900 Active 333-char remark
18. 2002-04-30
    soldstatus $26,800
19. 1998-04-14
    soldstatus $26,818

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 51.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$812
• After-tax cash flow: $4,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+366.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $125,000 LMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $129,900 LMLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $26,800 Public Records
• 1998-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $26,818 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +51.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.