14501 Herschel St · Pilot Point, TX 75009

$429,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,095 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 6,490 sqft lot $139/sqft · 12% below area Est $487k · 12% under $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New build
• Albany floorplan

Tags

• NEW BUILD
• CREEKVIEW MEADOWS
• ALBANY FLOORPLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $334,061 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,707
• List price: $429,990
• Delta: -9.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5942 Hodgkin Ave	0.07mi	5/4.0	3,035 (-2%)	3mo	$465,750	$153	91
14553 Lovelace St	0.18mi	5/4.0	3,095 (0%)	2mo	$469,990	$152	90
14558 Lovelace St	0.19mi	5/4.0	3,095 (0%)	3mo	$454,640	$147	89
14550 Helena St	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,096 (0%)	2mo	$499,970	$161	84
14525 Jemison St	0.08mi	5/4.0	2,849 (-8%)	1mo	$479,000	$168	82
5806 Blackwell Ave	0.25mi	5/4.5	3,006 (-3%)	3mo	$519,990	$173	79
14422 Mcclint St	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,026 (-2%)	2mo	$469,000	$155	78
14566 Jemison St	0.17mi	5/4.0	3,421 (+10%)	1mo	$499,990	$146	73
14770 Florence Cooper Ln	0.25mi	5/4.0	3,412 (+10%)	1mo	$484,990	$142	70
14454 Mcclint St	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,877 (-7%)	3mo	$484,960	$169	70
14534 Jemison	0.12mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,466 (+12%)	3mo	$529,950	$153	67
14786 Florence Cooper Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,353 (+8%)	2mo	$514,490	$153	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-105,071
• Equity at exit: $64,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-162,037
• Equity at exit: $37,178

Cash invested: $120,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$537 /mo · $6,450/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,851

Max offer price $371,605

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,498
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5924 Hodgkin Ave Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3095	$3,900	$1.26	1d	1	0.04mi
14461 Lovelace St Celina, TX	5.0	4.5	3145	$3,900	$1.24	1d	1	0.13mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	4d	1	0.65mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	12d	1	0.66mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	5d	1	0.66mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	2d	1	0.68mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	11d	1	0.73mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	24d	1	0.78mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	18d	1	0.84mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	43d	1	0.85mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	12d	1	0.87mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	24d	1	0.88mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	7d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,990 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $429,990 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,990 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,990 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,990 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $439,990 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $441,990 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $441,990 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $441,990 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $441,990 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $441,990 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $442,990 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $442,990 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $442,990 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    status Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

16. 2026-05-13
    historical 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

17. 2026-05-12
    price $444,990 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

18. 2026-05-01
    price $454,990 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $454,990 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

20. 2026-04-23
    price $464,990 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

21. 2026-04-21
    price $464,990 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

22. 2026-04-17
    status Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

23. 2026-04-15
    status Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

24. 2026-03-31
    historical 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

25. 2026-03-29
    status Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

26. 2026-03-28
    historical 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

27. 2026-03-27
    status Pending 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

28. 2026-03-26
    status Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

29. 2026-03-24
    listed $469,990 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Gorgeous New Build in Creekview Meadows, Pilot Point: Make your dream home a reality this Spring in the highly sought-after Creekview Meadows home! This exquisite two-story Albany Floorplan effortlessly combines space, style, and convenience. With 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 beautifully appointed bathrooms, this home is ideal for both families living and entertaining. The Albany Floorplan brings you open concept living at its finest. The Gourmet Kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, sleek quartz countertops, and luxury vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere.

30. 2026-03-14
    historical 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

31. 2026-03-12
    price $469,990 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

32. 2026-03-07
    price $474,990 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

33. 2026-02-22
    listed $475,840 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available NOW! The family-friendly Albany floor plan offers an open-plan gathering room and kitchen, plus second floor loft. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,086
• − Property taxes: −$6,450
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,207
• − Management: −$3,207
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$12,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $444,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $454,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $454,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $464,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $464,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Listed $469,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $469,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-22 Listed $475,840 Zillow