39820 US Highway 19 N #15 · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1973 39 ac lot Est $157k · at est. $380/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Property is in the PET AREA. A well cared for Two Bedroom, Two Bath, Home. The home is fully furnished, includes all appliances, and is near the pool and clubhouse. It has a screened in Lanai with enclosed Utility shed. The Laundry facilities are on the inside of the home. Refrigerator & washer are less then 5 years old. The air conditioning and heating unit is three years old. This home also has several ceiling fans. The home has regular siding. This is a private over 55Park with a community pool, common area, club house, and low monthly maintenance fee of $195. Flood insurance is not required. Great location, near beaches, parks and more.

Key facts

• Built-in buffet
• Own the land
• Large florida room

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• RESORT-STYLE LIVING
• LARGE FLORIDA ROOM
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN BUFFET
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported: $4,560
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee ($380) — includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, internet, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, maintenance, cable TV; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Clubhouse and recreation owned; Golf carts OK; Handicap modified access; Sidewalks and street lights; Dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway parking; On-street parking; Oversized spaces; 2-space carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water and well; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable connected; BB/HS internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler well; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); One story; North-facing; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sprinkler (metered); Storage shed; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Tinted windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tarpon Springs Elementary School (math 57% / reading 41%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 506 students, 80% FRL); Tarpon Springs High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,139 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $150k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,248
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Seagull Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$129	77
39820 US Highway 19 N #9	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	11mo	$145,000	$131	71
237 Harmony Way	0.25mi	2/2.0	989 (-2%)	18mo	$160,000	$162	70
271 Northgate Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	936 (-7%)	13mo	$146,000	$156	62
116 Rachel Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	866 (-14%)	19mo	$160,000	$185	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-21,581
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-28,803
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39650 US Highway 19 N #141 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,550	$1.63	4d	1	0.18mi
640 Haven Pl #640 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	7d	1	0.39mi
673 Haven Pl #673 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	14d	1	0.42mi
501 Saint Michaels Way Unit 520 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	0.46mi
605 S Disston Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1290	$2,120	$1.64	21d	1	0.48mi
524 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	24d	1	0.64mi
1113 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	3d	1	0.70mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	1d	21	0.76mi
650 E Tarpon Ave Unit C1 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	7d	1	0.77mi
326 S Grosse Ave Apt 2 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,098	$1.86	24d	1	0.79mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.80mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	1d	1	0.81mi
401 E Boyer St Unit 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	24d	1	0.81mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,299	$2.03	24d	1	0.81mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.83mi
329 Moorings Cove Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	20d	1	1.03mi
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	2d	6	1.04mi
90 S Highland Ave #101 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,795	$1.59	24d	1	1.13mi
1990 Carolina Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	21d	1	1.19mi
610 N Walton Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,045	$1.60	24d	1	1.21mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	24d	1	1.22mi
707 E Spruce St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	10d	1	1.23mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	24d	1	1.25mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	24d	1	1.31mi
2350 Cypress Pond Rd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,670	$2.11	1d	54	1.44mi
605 Lennox Rd W Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	2d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $150,000 Active
14. 2025-06-27
    status Pending
15. 2025-06-27
    historical
16. 2025-04-16
    price $155,000
17. 2025-03-05
    price $160,000
18. 2025-02-21
    price $165,000
19. 2025-02-06
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $45,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    The Property is in the PET AREA. A well cared for Two Bedroom, Two Bath, Home. The home is fully furnished, includes all appliances, and is near the pool and clubhouse. It has a screened in Lanai with enclosed Utility shed. The Laundry facilities are on the inside of the home. Refrigerator & washer are less then 5 years old. The air conditioning and heating unit is three years old. This home also has several ceiling fans. The home has regular siding. This is a private over 55Park with a community pool, common area, club house, and low monthly maintenance fee of $195. Flood insurance is not required. Great location, near beaches, parks and more.

21. 2010-10-05
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2010-06-16
    listed $53,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    The Property is in the PET AREA. A well cared for Two Bedroom, Two Bath, Home. The home is fully furnished, includes all appliances, and is near the pool and clubhouse. It has a screened in Lanai with enclosed Utility shed. The Laundry facilities are on the inside of the home. Refrigerator & washer are less then 5 years old. The air conditioning and heating unit is three years old. This home also has several ceiling fans. The home has regular siding. This is a private over 55Park with a community pool, common area, club house, and low monthly maintenance fee of $195. Flood insurance is not required. Great location, near beaches, parks and more.

23. 2010-02-01
    soldstatus $12,000
24. 2000-10-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+581.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-16 Listed $53,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.