319 Jerrys Folly Rd · Aiken, SC 29803

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2020 10,018 sqft lot Est $222k · 42% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem that's just 5 years young and ready for its next chapter. Thoughtfully designed with modern living in mind, this home offers an open, inviting layout that feels both comfortable and stylish. Seller added many impressive upgrades, including walk-in shower, screened-in deck with a hot tub, and a covered parking area! Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, you'll love how easy life feels here. The community takes care of the extras, offering resort-style amenities including a pool, gym, and trash service--so you can spend more time enjoying and less time worrying. Inside, the home truly shines

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Open inviting layout
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN INVITING LAYOUT
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Paved parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Porch; Deck; Shed(s); Landscaped; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.1% in Aiken — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 516 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.35%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,208
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Jerrys Folly Rd	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+7%)	1mo	$115,000	$60	79
659 Thenas Garden Gdn	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	2mo	$209,000	$124	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $30,989
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $103,119
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29803

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 516
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1256 Watsonia Dr Unit NA Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,600	$1.38	23d	1	0.47mi
507 Schaver Loop Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	2557	$2,195	$0.86	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-31
   price $129,900
4. 2026-03-27
   price $133,900
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $7,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aiken 01
• NCES district ID: 4500720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,081
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5857
• State rank: #36 of 80 in SC

Livability — Aiken

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10443

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Aiken County · 116,534 people
• City population: 71,807
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 40,699
• Household income: $86,023
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 641.0

Population outlook (Aiken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 178,003 people
• By 2030: 182,876 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 189,970 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 193,840 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 199,453 · +12.1%
• By 2100: 192,403 · +8.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aiken

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.9) · D 36.4% · R 62.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.9 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -221.02%
• Current HPI: 231.6908
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — AMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — AMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $129,900 AMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $133,900 AMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $139,900 AMLS

Property tax history

-25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $135 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.