Is The Pearl Plan in Kyle, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.5% cap rate and $-503/mo modeled cash flow at a $292,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for The Pearl Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,252/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.6

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.9/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.2/10.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +2.4/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$292,990

The Pearl Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the Pearl floorplan featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the main bedroom with an en-suite that includes a large walk-in closet. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the 4 secondary bedrooms, full bath and a loft. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Prairie Lakes.

Key facts

Gourmet kitchen
Large walk-in closet
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (12.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (23.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $225k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,207 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.46%
Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $330,282
List price: $292,990
Delta: -11.29%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Bardwell Way	0.62mi	5/2.5	1,938 (0%)	1mo	$296,990	$153	70
231 Garcia St	0.51mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$293,990	$155	69
224 Garcia St	0.53mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	4mo	$303,118	$160	68
470 Bull Lake Cir	0.62mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	4mo	$290,990	$154	63
508 Bull Lake Cir	0.64mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$287,990	$152	63
556 Bull Lake Cir	0.68mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	4mo	$290,990	$154	61
275 Mustang Lake Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-9%)	2mo	$322,730	$182	58
211 Mustang Lake Cir	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	3mo	$339,990	$161	57
276 Mustang Lake Cir	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	4mo	$339,990	$161	54
199 Bardwell Way	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,782 (-8%)	4mo	$280,840	$158	47
284 Mustang Lake Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	4mo	$305,990	$182	44
576 Gilmer Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-14%)	1mo	$320,990	$193	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -30.9%
Equity multiple: 0.00×
Total profit: $-92,146
Equity at exit: $49,246

10-year hold

IRR: -54.0%
Equity multiple: -0.59×
Total profit: $-146,889
Equity at exit: $28,557

Cash invested: $92,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 33 active · 24 under contract
Months of supply: 10.4 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $319,990 ($161/sqft)
Median days on market: 78 d
This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

Home prices YoY: -33.8%
Rents YoY: -0.3%
Active inventory: 2406
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,252 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,732
Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,954/yr
Insurance: −$138
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889

Max offer price $257,444

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-275	-5% $-389	+0% $-503	+5% $-617	+10% $-732
Rent	-10% $-681	-5% $-592	+0% $-503	+5% $-414	+10% $-325
Rate	-1.0pp $-337	-0.5pp $-419	base $-503	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $82,570
Closing costs: $9,908
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	59d	1	0.18mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,095	$1.30	82d	1	0.18mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	42d	1	0.18mi
143 Shafter St Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	64d	1	0.22mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	56d	1	0.24mi
143 Santa Rosa Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,400	$1.18	6d	1	0.33mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	139d	1	0.33mi
282 Bull Lake Cir Buda, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	42d	1	0.50mi
171 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1782	$1,995	$1.12	3d	1	0.64mi
161 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1641	$1,925	$1.17	64d	1	0.65mi
346 Gladiola Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,949	$1.15	139d	1	1.46mi
302 Gladiola Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2042	$1,995	$0.98	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $292,990 Active 218 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $292,990 Active 217 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $292,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $292,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $292,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $292,990 Active 213 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $292,990 Active 212 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $292,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $292,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $292,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $292,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $292,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $292,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $292,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $292,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $292,990 Active 198 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $292,990 Active 195 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $292,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $292,990 Active 193 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $292,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $292,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $292,990 Active 189 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $292,990 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $292,990 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $292,990 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $292,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $292,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $292,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $292,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $292,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $292,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $292,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $292,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $292,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $292,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $292,990 Active 174 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $292,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $292,990 Active 172 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $292,990 Active 170 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $292,990 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-04

pricedays on market $292,990 Active 168 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $291,990 Active 167 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $291,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $291,990 Active 162 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $291,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $291,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $291,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $291,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $291,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $291,990 Active 154 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,025
− Mortgage interest: −$18,501
− Property taxes: −$4,954
− Insurance: −$1,651
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
− Management: −$2,162
− Depreciation: −$9,608
Taxable loss: −$12,014

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,883
After-tax cash flow: $-3,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Pearl Plan home in Buda, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a well-designed floor plan and high-quality finishes, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hays CISD
NCES district ID: 4800010
Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $70,570
Composite: 34.78/100
National rank: #5118
State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

Score: 75/100
State rank: #138
US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Hays County · 286,948 people
City population: 77,531
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 77,531
Household income: $90,075
Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 286,948 people
By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
Current HPI: 181.7969
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-02-17 Listed $291,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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