408 Stafford Ave · Syracuse, NY 13206

$169,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 6,040 sqft lot Est $198k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Wood burning f p
• 6,040 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• WOOD BURNING F P
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Henninger High School (math 65% / reading 50%, grade C, #885 of 1,100 statewide, top 81%, 1,499 students, 85% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $170k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.86%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,306
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
362 Hickok Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-8%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	74
127 Schuler St	0.56mi	4/1.5	1,448 (+1%)	1mo	$225,000	$155	70
136 S Collingwood Ave	0.51mi	4/1.0	1,344 (-6%)	3mo	$60,236	$45	63
206 Lillian Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,448 (+1%)	6mo	$176,800	$122	62
125 Paul Ave	0.61mi	4/1.5	1,527 (+6%)	1mo	$210,000	$138	58
227 Hixson St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$154,900	$101	58
337 Lillian Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,436 (-0%)	3mo	$100,000	$70	56
209 Boyden St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,416 (-2%)	5mo	$178,571	$126	56
409 Hixson Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	1mo	$155,000	$126	50
158 Norwood Ave	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,292 (-10%)	3mo	$200,000	$155	50
124 Winthrop Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-8%)	4mo	$240,000	$182	43
259 Homecroft Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-12%)	5mo	$251,000	$199	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,829
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $76,870
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13206

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,365/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $558	+0% $510	+5% $462	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $431	+0% $510	+5% $589	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $553	base $510	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Stafford Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1692	$1,800	$1.06	15d	1	0.34mi
204 Mariposa St Unit pvt house Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,137	$1.89	15d	1	0.37mi
1801 James St #2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1244	$1,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.60mi
297 Norwood Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1188	$2,050	$1.73	22d	1	0.85mi
118 Niven St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	22d	1	0.97mi
135 Lexington Ave Unit 22 Syracuse, NY	5.0	2.0	1150	$2,500	$2.17	45d	1	1.07mi
423 Wendell Ter Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	15d	1	1.12mi
205 Fellows Ave Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1638	$1,800	$1.10	22d	1	1.36mi
126 Woodruff Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	45d	1	1.41mi
1108 Madison St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1580	$2,080	$1.32	45d	1	1.41mi
525 Burnet Ave Unit First Floor Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	45d	1	1.43mi
108 Harrington Rd Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2017-10-10
   soldstatus $87,000 Closed Sale or Rented 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

4. 2017-10-05
   soldstatus $88,000
5. 2017-08-30
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

6. 2017-08-10
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

7. 2017-07-31
   price $89,900 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

8. 2017-07-06
   listed $94,000 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Stunning Cape with hardwood floors throughout. Get cozy by the fireplace or entertain in your formal dining room. Two bedrooms on the first floor with lots of potential for an office, study, workout room or playroom for the kids. Eat in kitchen overlooks your fully fenced backyard. Two large bedrooms located on the second level. All you need to do is move in and enjoy all the home has to offer. Close to major highways, and shopping.

9. 2011-05-29
   historical 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Just move in. Freshly painted interior. New storm windows and gutters. New appliances. New kitchen countertops and sink. The garage is currently not set up for automobile use.

10. 2011-05-23
    soldstatus $78,500
11. 2011-05-11
    soldstatus $78,500 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Just move in. Freshly painted interior. New storm windows and gutters. New appliances. New kitchen countertops and sink. The garage is currently not set up for automobile use.

12. 2011-01-31
    listed $82,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Just move in. Freshly painted interior. New storm windows and gutters. New appliances. New kitchen countertops and sink. The garage is currently not set up for automobile use.

13. 2010-09-29
    soldstatus $48,950
14. 2010-08-05
    historical
15. 2010-07-20
    soldstatus $44,500
16. 2010-05-13
    listed $85,207

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,365 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,118 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 55.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,365
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $3,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $5,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,245
• Household income: $63,136
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.60%
• Current HPI: 322.231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.85%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $169,900 CNYIS
• 2017-10-10 Sold (MLS) $87,000 CNYIS
• 2017-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2017-08-10 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2017-07-31 Price Changed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2017-07-06 Listed $94,000 CNYIS
• 2011-05-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2011-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2011-05-11 Sold (MLS) $78,500 CNYIS
• 2011-01-31 Listed $82,000 CNYIS
• 2010-09-29 Sold (MLS) $48,950 CNYIS
• 2010-08-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2010-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 2010-05-13 Listed $85,207 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,365 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.