571 W Porphyry St · Superior, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +7.0/10.0
- 1% rule +4.7/10.0
- Livability +2.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.0/10.0
$152,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This house has such great potential! Located in an up-and-coming neighborhood with a huge lot! There is a separated Apartment that has a kitchen, bedroom and its own bathroom that can be rented out as well! With a handy person, this home will be such a great home. Nice view of many of the Superior Mountains Ranges!
Key facts
- Separated apartment
- Own bathroom
- 0.41 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (2.6% below list).
- Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 57/100 on livability (#234 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
- Superior Unified School District (4440) (town): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #371 of 501 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.97% ✗
- Cap rate
- 8.21%
- Cash-on-cash
- 6.85%
- DSCR
- 1.30
- GRM
- 8.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $218,064
- List price
- $152,000
- Delta
- -30.30%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 492 W Santa Rita St | 0.12mi | 4/3.0 | 1,258 (-7%) | 20mo | $256,500 | $204 | 62 |
| 1097 S Stone Ave | 0.71mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,362 (+0%) | 0mo | $275,000 | $202 | 60 |
| 300 N Magma Ave | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,504 (+11%) | 1mo | $245,000 | $163 | 58 |
| 289 N Neary Ave | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,419 (+4%) | 22mo | $140,000 | $99 | 58 |
| 502 S Church Ave | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,454 (+7%) | 13mo | $275,000 | $189 | 57 |
| 47 N Stansberry Ave | 0.10mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,203 (-12%) | 16mo | $260,000 | $216 | 57 |
| 233 W Terrace -- | 0.38mi | 3/1.0 (-1) | 1,314 (-3%) | 14mo | $135,000 | $103 | 56 |
| 75 W Mckelveyville St | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,176 (-14%) | 17mo | $279,000 | $237 | 33 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 29.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.31×
- Total profit
- $98,206
- Equity at exit
- $136,934
- IRR
- 25.4%
- Equity multiple
- 7.51×
- Total profit
- $276,922
- Equity at exit
- $295,303
Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85173
- Home prices YoY
- 7.9%
- Active inventory
- 25
- Price-to-rent
- 8.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,480 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$797
- Tax from tax record
- −$66 /mo · $792/yr
- Insurance
- −$63
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$311
- Net cashflow
- $243
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $329 | -5% $286 | +0% $243 | +5% $200 | +10% $157 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $126 | -5% $185 | +0% $243 | +5% $301 | +10% $360 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $320 | -0.5pp $282 | base $243 | +0.5pp $204 | +1.0pp $164 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $38,000
- Closing costs
- $4,560
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $152,000 Active 173 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $152,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-06-16remarks 342-char remark
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2026-06-16days on market $152,000 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $152,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $152,000 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $152,000 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $152,000 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $152,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $152,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $152,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $152,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $152,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $152,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2025-12-27$152,000 Active 318-char remark
Show marketing remark (318 chars)
This house has such great potential! Located in an up-and-coming neighborhood with a huge lot! There is a separated Apartment that has a kitchen, bedroom and its own bathroom that can be rented out as well! With a handy person, this home will be such a great home. Nice view of many of the Superior Mountains Ranges!
-
2021-08-11historical
-
2021-07-19$205,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $792 · $66/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,003 · $84/mo
- Expected delta
- +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 26.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,763
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,514
- − Property taxes
- −$792
- − Insurance
- −$760
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,421
- − Management
- −$1,421
- − Depreciation
- −$4,422
- Taxable income
- $433
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$104
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,812/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Superior Unified School District (4440)
- NCES district ID
- 0408230
- Math proficiency
- 15% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 25% ▲ 10.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,371
- Composite
- 20.12/100
- National rank
- #13849
- State rank
- #371 of 501 in AZ
Livability — Superior
- Score
- 57/100
- State rank
- #234
- US rank
- #22184
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Superior, AZ
- City population
- 2,534
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,534
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority Hispanic (58%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 58% White 34% Two or more races 27% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 53%
- Common ancestry
- Iranian 2% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
- Languages at home
- 70% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 3% Korean 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 28.01%
- Current HPI
- 382.9131
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
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| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
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Price history
-25.9% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-27 Listed $152,000 ARMLS
- 2021-08-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2021-07-19 Listed $205,000 ARMLS
Property tax history
+1.8%/yrLatest (2025): $792 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…