11 Navel Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$56,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Manufactured public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1982 4,251 sqft lot $281/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Fully enclosed lanai

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY ENCLOSED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual association fees $3,378; Total monthly association fees $281.50
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $281.50 (Orange Manor West Co-Op INC); Association requires approval; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Buyer approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer included; Outside laundry access; Other laundry option

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.04%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $38,240
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $89,266
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,291/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$281
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $803	-5% $787	+0% $772	+5% $756	+10% $740
Rent	-10% $624	-5% $698	+0% $772	+5% $845	+10% $919
Rate	-1.0pp $800	-0.5pp $786	base $772	+0.5pp $757	+1.0pp $742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	0.72mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.75mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	22d	1	0.75mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	0.76mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	19d	1	0.78mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	3d	1	0.78mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	14d	1	1.18mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	1.18mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $281 · $3,372/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $56,000
3. 2026-02-21
   status Active
4. 2026-02-21
   price $59,000
5. 2026-02-12
   historical
6. 2026-02-02
   status Active
7. 2025-12-13
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-10
   price $62,000
9. 2025-10-20
   price $65,000
10. 2025-10-18
    status Active
11. 2025-10-12
    historical
12. 2025-10-08
    status Active
13. 2025-10-06
    status Pending
14. 2025-09-15
    price $69,000
15. 2025-08-26
    price $74,000
16. 2025-06-13
    price $79,900
17. 2025-04-12
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2025-04-09
    historical
19. 2025-03-27
    price $80,000
20. 2025-02-25
    price $89,000
21. 2025-02-06
    price $99,900
22. 2025-01-28
    price $104,900
23. 2024-12-06
    price $109,900
24. 2024-10-21
    listed $115,000 Active
25. 2018-04-05
    soldstatus $48,000 Sold 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

26. 2018-03-24
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

27. 2018-03-23
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

28. 2018-03-22
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

29. 2018-03-22
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

30. 2018-03-06
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

31. 2018-02-26
    price $49,000 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

32. 2018-01-08
    listed $52,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Beautiful home in 55+ community. Fully furnished and move in ready. Open floor plan with lots of space. This home comes with one share of Orange Manor Co-Op. Has a beautiful enclosed Lanai. Call for appointment to see.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$1,291
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$3,372
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $9,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $7,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $62,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $74,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-12 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-05 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Price Changed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-08 Listed $52,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,291 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.