16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 103A · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$49,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2021 Good condition $120/sqft · 9% below area Est $54k · 9% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.0

Listing remarks

Easy Financing is available for this 2021 home located in a beautiful, well-maintained 55+ community. This bright and inviting home features windows in every room, filling the interior with natural light. From the living room, enjoy peaceful mountain and treed views, while the elevated lot provides added privacy throughout the home. The functional kitchen offers efficient layout and storage, perfect for everyday living or extended stays. The master bedroom offers a large closet with built in drawers. Outside, an oversized concrete pad provides ample room for parking as well as outdoor patio furniture--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This home has 2 separate entrances.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Large closet
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ELEVATED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE CLOSET
• OVERSIZED CONCRETE PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($933 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.0% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 948 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.86%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,909
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -9.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 125A	0.01mi	1/1.0	399 (-2%)	2mo	$99,500	$249	94
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 140B	0.25mi	1/1.0	399 (-2%)	4mo	$107,000	$268	81
16 Star Vale Dr Unit 154A	0.22mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	8mo	$95,000	$240	78
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 153B	0.22mi	1/1.0	399 (-2%)	12mo	$93,000	$233	76
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 142A	0.01mi	1/1.0	468 (+15%)	0mo	$97,375	$208	75
3680 E Hwy 260 Unit B2	0.23mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	15mo	$69,000	$174	72
3696 Az-260 Unit A6	0.29mi	1/1.0	385 (-6%)	10mo	$80,000	$208	69
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 152B	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	398 (-2%)	16mo	$95,000	$239	67
3933 E AZ Highway 260 #114	0.53mi	1/1.0	398 (-2%)	9mo	$50,000	$126	64
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #11	0.22mi	1/1.0	456 (+12%)	9mo	$61,400	$135	62
3933 Az-260 #136	0.59mi	1/1.0	400 (-2%)	12mo	$50,000	$125	59
480 S Rainbow Drive Dr #55	1.19mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	1mo	$52,000	$131	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $17,460
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $47,950
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $84,900 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 175 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -37.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 948
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $432	-5% $416	+0% $399	+5% $382	+10% $365
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $362	+0% $399	+5% $435	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $411	base $399	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in W Ranch Resort subdivisionDirections available to property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association presentCommunity clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankPropane availableElectricity availablePhone availableCable availableUnderground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured homeResidential property
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: PatioPartial fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorGas range
• Bedrooms: Master on main floor
• Flooring: LaminateWood
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCooling available
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsMaster bedroom on the main floorDouble pane windowsHas coolingHas heatingElectric forced-air heatingSmoke detector(s)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $49,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $49,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $49,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $49,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $55,000 Active 45 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $55,000 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $55,000 Active 38 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 30 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
45. 2026-08-01
    price $55,000 Active 21 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $59,200 Active 21 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $59,200 Active 20 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $59,200 Active 19 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $59,200 Active 17 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $59,200 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$896
• − Management: −$896
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $4,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,040–$6,120 screening

This lightly lived-in 2021 manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Maintains curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Julia Randall Elementary School F AZ #586/1,109 Nat'l #28,175/41,679 Middle Rim Country Middle School F AZ #100/218 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Payson High School F AZ #141/381 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

F Composite livability gradescore 44/100

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 50,229 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in W Ranch Resort subdivisionDirections available to property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association presentCommunity clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankPropane availableElectricity availablePhone availableCable availableUnderground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured homeResidential property
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: PatioPartial fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorGas range
• Bedrooms: Master on main floor
• Flooring: LaminateWood
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCooling available
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsMaster bedroom on the main floorDouble pane windowsHas coolingHas heatingElectric forced-air heatingSmoke detector(s)

Price history

-44.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-03 Price Changed $59,200 CAAR
• 2026-07-03 Listed $59,200 CAAR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $59,700 CAAR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $78,000 CAAR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $89,000 CAAR
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $107,000 ARMLS