16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 103A · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$59,700

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $146/sqft · 11% above area Est $54k · 11% over ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy Financing is available for this lightly lived in 2021 home is located in a beautiful, well-maintained 55+ community. This bright and inviting home features windows in every room, filling the interior with natural light. From the living room, enjoy peaceful mountain and treed views, while the elevated lot provides added privacy throughout the home. The functional kitchen offers efficient layout and storage, perfect for everyday living or extended stays. The master bedroom currently accommodates a king-size bunk bed with built-in drawers underneath, maximizing both sleeping space and storage. Outside, an oversized concrete pad provides ample room for parking as well as outdoor patio furniture--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This home has 2 separate entrances. One is a sliding glass door from the living room and the other is towards the back making it easily accessible. Space rent includes access to outstanding community amenities such as a clubhouse, gym, pickleball court, dog park, and community garden. Water, sewer, and trash are also included, making this an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle opportunity in a scenic setting. PLEASE NOTE: The photo with the porch is AI Generated giving an idea of the possibilities. The porch does not exist.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Community amenities
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ELEVATED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED CONCRETE PAD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $413 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,536 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.61%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,640
• List price: $59,700
• Delta: 11.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #11	0.22mi	1/1.0	456 (+12%)	6mo	$61,400	$135	65
3933 Az-260 #136	0.59mi	1/1.0	400 (-2%)	9mo	$50,000	$125	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $24,597
• Equity at exit: $8,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $65,599
• Equity at exit: $5,162

Cash invested: $16,716 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$313
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $59,700

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,925
• Closing costs: $1,791
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $59,700 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,700 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,700 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,700 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,700 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-02-04
   price $59,700 1268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

   Easy Financing is available for this lightly lived in 2021 home is located in a beautiful, well-maintained 55+ community. This bright and inviting home features windows in every room, filling the interior with natural light. From the living room, enjoy peaceful mountain and treed views, while the elevated lot provides added privacy throughout the home. The functional kitchen offers efficient layout and storage, perfect for everyday living or extended stays. The master bedroom currently accommodates a king-size bunk bed with built-in drawers underneath, maximizing both sleeping space and storage. Outside, an oversized concrete pad provides ample room for parking as well as outdoor patio furniture--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This home has 2 separate entrances. One is a sliding glass door from the living room and the other is towards the back making it easily accessible. Space rent includes access to outstanding community amenities such as a clubhouse, gym, pickleball court, dog park, and community garden. Water, sewer, and trash are also included, making this an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle opportunity in a scenic setting. PLEASE NOTE: The photo with the porch is AI Generated giving an idea of the possibilities. The porch does not exist.

7. 2026-01-11
   listed $78,000 Active 1268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

   Easy Financing is available for this lightly lived in 2021 home is located in a beautiful, well-maintained 55+ community. This bright and inviting home features windows in every room, filling the interior with natural light. From the living room, enjoy peaceful mountain and treed views, while the elevated lot provides added privacy throughout the home. The functional kitchen offers efficient layout and storage, perfect for everyday living or extended stays. The master bedroom currently accommodates a king-size bunk bed with built-in drawers underneath, maximizing both sleeping space and storage. Outside, an oversized concrete pad provides ample room for parking as well as outdoor patio furniture--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This home has 2 separate entrances. One is a sliding glass door from the living room and the other is towards the back making it easily accessible. Space rent includes access to outstanding community amenities such as a clubhouse, gym, pickleball court, dog park, and community garden. Water, sewer, and trash are also included, making this an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle opportunity in a scenic setting. PLEASE NOTE: The photo with the porch is AI Generated giving an idea of the possibilities. The porch does not exist.

8. 2025-09-16
   price $78,000
9. 2025-07-11
   price $89,000
10. 2025-06-26
    historical
11. 2025-06-13
    listed $107,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,344
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$1,737
• Taxable income: $5,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $5,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This lightly lived-in 2021 manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Maintains curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Maintains curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-44.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $59,700 CAAR
• 2026-01-11 Listed $78,000 CAAR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $78,000 CAAR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $89,000 CAAR
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $107,000 ARMLS