15630 Del Norte Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$245,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2020 Excellent condition 5,026 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $249k · at est. $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

Key facts

• Chef-ready kitchen
• Updated blinds
• 5,026 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• EXTENDED CONCRETE PATIO
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• WHOLE-HOME WATER SOFTENER
• UPDATED BLINDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Crocket Reserve Home Owners Assoc; Annual association fee of $470; Association dues cover common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on second level (three bedrooms total possible)
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,409 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,809
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 0.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15670 Briar Forest Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	1,884 (+1%)	12mo	$245,000	$130	69
15616 Del Norte Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,603 (-14%)	7mo	$229,900	$143	68
15510 Briar Forest Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,014 (+8%)	21mo	$245,990	$122	67
3952 Highline Oaks E	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (-4%)	2mo	$370,000	$207	51
3948 Highline Oaks E	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,109 (+13%)	22mo	$373,200	$177	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-53,674
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-64,598
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,582/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $206,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-151	+0% $-220	+5% $-289	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-295	+0% $-220	+5% $-145	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-158	base $-220	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	0.14mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	45d	1	0.24mi
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $245,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $249,000 679-char remark
16. 2026-03-28
    listed $255,000 Active 679-char remark
17. 2021-01-28
    soldstatus Sold 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

18. 2021-01-05
    status Pending 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

19. 2020-12-17
    price $205,990 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

20. 2020-12-04
    price $211,990 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

21. 2020-12-04
    status Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

22. 2020-11-18
    status Pending 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

23. 2020-11-02
    price $205,990 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

24. 2020-10-08
    price $205,989 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

25. 2020-09-02
    price $205,990 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

26. 2020-09-01
    listed $204,990 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    1802-A NEW 2-story home with 2-car garage! The main floor features a great room that connects to the dining room and kitchen. Also, on the main floor is a bedroom and full bath. The 2nd floor features the owner's suite with walk-in closet and private bathroom. Additionally, upstairs are 2 other bedrooms, another full bath, spacious loft, and the laundry room. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,582 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$902/yr (+$75/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,582
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2020 single-family home is move-in ready with excellent condition and a modern, inviting interior. The well-maintained exterior and landscaping add to its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — refreshes the home's appearance
• Both interior paint — updates the home's look and feel

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — refreshes the home's appearance ↑
• Both interior paint — updates the home's look and feel ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-01-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-17 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2020-12-04 Price Changed $211,990 HARMLS
• 2020-12-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-02 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $205,989 HARMLS
• 2020-09-02 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2020-09-01 Listed $204,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,582 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.