1609 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$110,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,164 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1969 6,643 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

* Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 6,643 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.06%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $23,115
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $77,489
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 60%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$1,776
Total (2 units)			$1,775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	0.31mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.68mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.77mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.84mi
1517 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,095	$0.72	21d	1	0.85mi
2220 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$1,300	$0.64	44d	1	0.90mi
1716 24th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1742	$1,850	$1.06	44d	1	0.99mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	1.00mi
2319 28th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2146	$1,650	$0.77	21d	1	1.02mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	1.03mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	1.07mi
2009 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1615	$1,249	$0.77	44d	1	1.08mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	21d	1	1.09mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	1.13mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	1.14mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	1.14mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	21d	1	1.21mi
1912 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,025	$0.70	44d	1	1.21mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	21d	1	1.25mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.26mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	1.27mi
1912 20th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,000	$0.63	21d	1	1.28mi
2104 20th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,700	$0.95	21d	1	1.31mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	1.34mi
2124 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,150	$0.78	14d	1	1.34mi
2402 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	1.39mi
2701 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.43mi
2310 59th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2637	$1,900	$0.72	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $110,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

3. 2026-04-01
   price $115,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

4. 2026-03-27
   status Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

5. 2026-03-12
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

6. 2026-03-09
   price $119,900 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

7. 2026-02-17
   listed $130,000 Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   * Back on market * Excellent investment opportunity near downtown Lubbock. Both units are identical 2 bed/2 bath. Strong rental appeal thanks to its convenient location near downtown shopping, dining, and employment centers. This one is half occupied bringing in $700/ month.

8. 2020-01-08
   soldstatus 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great investment opportunity with this duplex! 1609 38th Street can either be bought individually or as part of a package with 1611 & 1613 38th Street. 1613 38th: Side A is vacant but previously rented for $675, Side B is occupied at $675. 1611 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675. 1609 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675.

9. 2020-01-08
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great investment opportunity with this duplex! 1609 38th Street can either be bought individually or as part of a package with 1611 & 1613 38th Street. 1613 38th: Side A is vacant but previously rented for $675, Side B is occupied at $675. 1611 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675. 1609 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675.

10. 2019-09-10
    listed $104,900 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with this duplex! 1609 38th Street can either be bought individually or as part of a package with 1611 & 1613 38th Street. 1613 38th: Side A is vacant but previously rented for $675, Side B is occupied at $675. 1611 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675. 1609 38th: Side A rents for $675, Side B $675.

11. 2019-05-23
    listed $110,000
12. 2019-02-25
    listed $110,000
13. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus
14. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus
15. 2016-02-01
    listed $85,000
16. 2013-07-22
    soldstatus
17. 2006-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $6,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $5,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $119,900 LARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $130,000 LARMLS
• 2020-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2019-09-10 Listed $104,900 LARMLS
• 2019-05-23 Listed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2019-02-25 Listed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2016-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-02-01 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2013-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.