610 Lost Creek Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,600 sqft lot $168/sqft · 21% below area Est $301k · 15% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Low property taxes! TOP #1 School District for all ages the Barbers Hill school district! Stylish Timeless Chic 1 story home with Amazing Stucco & Brick Elevation! Grand Entry with High Ceilings, Gorgeous Luxury Vinyl Wood Floors throughout! Lush Carpeting in all the bedrooms! Amazing Open Floor Plan with Huge Family Area that Flows into the Gourmet Kitchen that features Gorgeous Silestone Counters, Tile Back-splash, Large Eat-in Island with Undermount Stainless Sink, Stainless Steel Appliances, Tall Upgraded Shaker Cabinets & more! Private Primary Suite has a Luxurious Bathroom featuring His & Her Undermount Deep Sinks, Vanity has Cultured Marble Countertops Massive Shower with Tile Surroundings & Walk-in Closet! Enjoy the Covered Patio! HERS Energy Rated, Tankless/On-Demand H2O Heater, 2 USB outlets &"Smart Home" with Amazon Echo & Dot, Skybell, Smart Lighting, Electric Deadbolt, Thermostat & Wireless Security, Control your home from anywhere! Sylvan Beach just 20 Minute away

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Low property taxes

Tags

• LOW PROPERTY TAXES
• TOP #1 SCHOOL DISTRICT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO
• HERS ENERGY RATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,525
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -8.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	93
6830 Bens Lndg	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	80
6810 Bens Lndg	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	2mo	$259,140	$171	80
14915 Spring Forest Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+10%)	3mo	$307,000	$185	78
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	72
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	72
6922 Bens Lndg	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	66
6818 Bens Lndg	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	66
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	64
14926 Diamond Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+10%)	3mo	$237,000	$143	64
218 San Marcos Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	52
6743 Camila St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+11%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,952
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,843
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,317/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	0.02mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.28mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	1.10mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	24d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricsecurity

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $255,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   listed $255,000 Active 1030-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

   Low property taxes! TOP #1 School District for all ages the Barbers Hill school district! Stylish Timeless Chic 1 story home with Amazing Stucco & Brick Elevation! Grand Entry with High Ceilings, Gorgeous Luxury Vinyl Wood Floors throughout! Lush Carpeting in all the bedrooms! Amazing Open Floor Plan with Huge Family Area that Flows into the Gourmet Kitchen that features Gorgeous Silestone Counters, Tile Back-splash, Large Eat-in Island with Undermount Stainless Sink, Stainless Steel Appliances, Tall Upgraded Shaker Cabinets & more! Private Primary Suite has a Luxurious Bathroom featuring His & Her Undermount Deep Sinks, Vanity has Cultured Marble Countertops Massive Shower with Tile Surroundings & Walk-in Closet! Enjoy the Covered Patio! HERS Energy Rated, Tankless/On-Demand H2O Heater, 2 USB outlets &"Smart Home" with Amazon Echo & Dot, Skybell, Smart Lighting, Electric Deadbolt, Thermostat & Wireless Security, Control your home from anywhere! Sylvan Beach just 20 Minute away

4. 2026-05-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

   Low property taxes! TOP #1 School District for all ages the Barbers Hill school district! Stylish Timeless Chic 1 story home with Amazing Stucco & Brick Elevation! Grand Entry with High Ceilings, Gorgeous Luxury Vinyl Wood Floors throughout! Lush Carpeting in all the bedrooms! Amazing Open Floor Plan with Huge Family Area that Flows into the Gourmet Kitchen that features Gorgeous Silestone Counters, Tile Back-splash, Large Eat-in Island with Undermount Stainless Sink, Stainless Steel Appliances, Tall Upgraded Shaker Cabinets & more! Private Primary Suite has a Luxurious Bathroom featuring His & Her Undermount Deep Sinks, Vanity has Cultured Marble Countertops Massive Shower with Tile Surroundings & Walk-in Closet! Enjoy the Covered Patio! HERS Energy Rated, Tankless/On-Demand H2O Heater, 2 USB outlets &"Smart Home" with Amazon Echo & Dot, Skybell, Smart Lighting, Electric Deadbolt, Thermostat & Wireless Security, Control your home from anywhere! Sylvan Beach just 20 Minute away

5. 2026-05-19
   price $255,000

   Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

   Low property taxes! TOP #1 School District for all ages the Barbers Hill school district! Stylish Timeless Chic 1 story home with Amazing Stucco & Brick Elevation! Grand Entry with High Ceilings, Gorgeous Luxury Vinyl Wood Floors throughout! Lush Carpeting in all the bedrooms! Amazing Open Floor Plan with Huge Family Area that Flows into the Gourmet Kitchen that features Gorgeous Silestone Counters, Tile Back-splash, Large Eat-in Island with Undermount Stainless Sink, Stainless Steel Appliances, Tall Upgraded Shaker Cabinets & more! Private Primary Suite has a Luxurious Bathroom featuring His & Her Undermount Deep Sinks, Vanity has Cultured Marble Countertops Massive Shower with Tile Surroundings & Walk-in Closet! Enjoy the Covered Patio! HERS Energy Rated, Tankless/On-Demand H2O Heater, 2 USB outlets &"Smart Home" with Amazon Echo & Dot, Skybell, Smart Lighting, Electric Deadbolt, Thermostat & Wireless Security, Control your home from anywhere! Sylvan Beach just 20 Minute away

6. 2026-04-03
   price $274,000
7. 2026-03-10
   price $279,000
8. 2026-02-25
   listed $289,000 Active
9. 2022-12-14
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2022-11-14
    status Pending, Continue to Show
11. 2022-10-19
    price $285,900
12. 2022-10-02
    price $295,900
13. 2022-10-01
    price $295,990
14. 2022-09-26
    listed $299,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,317 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,317
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$1,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$290
• After-tax cash flow: $3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Cove, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior, landscaping, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior stucco and brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior stucco and brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-19 Price Changed $285,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-02 Price Changed $295,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $295,990 HARMLS
• 2022-09-26 Listed $299,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,317 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.