RC Carson Plan · Broken Arrow, OK 74014

$251,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,559 sqft · SingleFamily · 413 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Open-plan layout

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• REAR PATIO
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $251,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan; Listed as Active
• Exterior features: Living area 1,559

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: RC Carson

🏗️ New construction. The $251,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,353.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-729/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 581 units permitted in Wagoner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wagoner County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,065 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,353
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1506 N 83rd St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,559 (0%)	5mo	$260,812	$167	86
1406 N 83rd St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,559 (0%)	6mo	$259,612	$167	83
8422 E Queens St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,613 (+4%)	4mo	$273,185	$169	79
1417 N 83rd St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,613 (+4%)	6mo	$266,410	$165	77
8112 E Lansing St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-7%)	1mo	$252,000	$174	75
8412 E Lansing St	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,632 (+5%)	3mo	$276,950	$170	72
8313 E Lansing Ave	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,710 (+10%)	0mo	$240,000	$140	68
1501 N 83rd St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-5%)	7mo	$258,215	$174	67
8408 E Norman Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+6%)	6mo	$271,000	$164	63
8208 E Madison St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (+15%)	1mo	$270,000	$151	61
6714 S 250th East Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,647 (+6%)	5mo	$180,000	$109	60
25307 E 68th St S	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (+12%)	6mo	$295,000	$170	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,955
• Equity at exit: $38,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-54,391
• Equity at exit: $22,511

Cash invested: $72,899 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74014

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,365
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,905/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,278

Max offer price $251,566

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $29	+0% $-61	+5% $-151	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-148	+0% $-61	+5% $26	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $5	base $-61	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,088
• Closing costs: $7,811
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8307 E Queens St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,750	$1.21	25d	1	0.70mi
8307 E Queens St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,000 Active 413 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,000 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,000 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,000 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,000 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $251,000 Active 405 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,000 Active 404 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,000 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $251,000 Active 402 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $251,000 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,000 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,000 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,000 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,000 Active 395 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,584
• − Property taxes: −$3,905
• − Insurance: −$1,302
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − Depreciation: −$7,574
• Taxable loss: −$5,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broken Arrow, OK
• County: Wagoner County · 61,834 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 45,212
• Household income: $95,501
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 289.0

Population outlook (Wagoner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,796 people
• By 2030: 88,162 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 93,882 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 98,219 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 106,561 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 109,360 · +29.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wagoner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.2% · R 74.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 203.7301
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B