4118 Saylor St · Fort McKinley, OH 45416

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1956 7,841 sqft lot $133/sqft · 23% above area Est $94k · 23% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached two-car garage
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential lot roughly 0.18 acres (approx. 125' x 61')

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 13 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (approx. 12 x 9, 10 x 11, 8 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,538
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 22.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4081 Lobata Pl	0.05mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	5mo	$93,000	$97	75
3538 Pittsburg Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	3mo	$109,900	$127	71
3678 Wilmore St	0.59mi	3/1.5	864 (0%)	3mo	$131,900	$153	68
4247 Otis Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	984 (+14%)	2mo	$120,000	$122	67
4370 Saylor St	0.26mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	3mo	$86,750	$90	67
3942 Beatty Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-11%)	0mo	$33,110	$43	66
3706 Colombo Ct	0.22mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	11mo	$48,510	$51	62
4113 Fleetwood Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	12mo	$100,000	$104	62
3901 Falmouth Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	832 (-4%)	11mo	$115,000	$138	60
4322 Saylor St	0.21mi	3/1.0	984 (+14%)	9mo	$88,000	$89	60
3509 Pittsburg Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (+3%)	11mo	$75,000	$84	60
3656 Detroit Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	967 (+12%)	3mo	$102,000	$105	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-8,796
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,025
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,490/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $981

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $187	+0% $154	+5% $122	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $108	+0% $154	+5% $201	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $184	base $154	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	3d	1	0.12mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	3d	1	0.18mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	3d	1	0.40mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	44d	1	0.42mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.44mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	4d	1	0.62mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	44d	1	0.83mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	0.91mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	3d	1	0.97mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	44d	1	0.99mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	24d	1	1.09mi
5610 N Main St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	3d	1	1.16mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	3d	1	1.21mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	22d	1	1.21mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	44d	1	1.25mi
62 W Nottingham Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	765	$750	$0.98	24d	1	1.31mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	1.35mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	22d	1	1.35mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	20d	1	1.35mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	4d	1	1.37mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	22d	1	1.42mi
4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	1.44mi
132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,130	$1.26	3d	1	1.46mi
148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.47mi
69 Waverly Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	4d	1	1.48mi
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $115,000
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,490
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $1,851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $115,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $120,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,490 · +119.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.