811 W Falcon Ave · Pharr, TX 78577

$158,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2001 6,023 sqft lot Est $209k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-kept 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home won't last long! Located in Pharr, TX, this is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer to achieve the dream of homeownership. It could also be a great investment opportunity as a rental property. The home features well-sized bedrooms and a covered patio, great for entertaining. Schedule a private tour today!

Key facts

• Large concrete patio
• Side entrance
• Metal roof

Tags

• LARGE CONCRETE PATIO
• METAL ROOF
• SIDE ENTRANCE
• PROTECTED VEHICLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car carport; Garage faces side
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Stucco construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Covered patio; Patio slab; Wood fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances
• Bedrooms: Living area(s) includes bedroom-adjacent living space
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite and solid surface countertops; Ceiling fan(s); No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pharr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#245 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Graciela Garcia El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 402 students, 93% FRL); Kennedy Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 580 students, 94% FRL); Psja Southwest Early College H S (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 1,692 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 72% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,245 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 W La Quinta Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-4%)	3mo	$250,000	$158	79
903 W Eagle Ave	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,607 (-3%)	17mo	$220,000	$137	69
711 W Dipper Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-11%)	6mo	$174,000	$118	59
5605 South Tikal Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,577 (-5%)	13mo	$166,900	$106	59
503 W Green Jay Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-11%)	6mo	$142,000	$96	56
6706 Primavera St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-4%)	5mo	$195,000	$123	51
509 W Starr Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (-9%)	3mo	$189,000	$126	47
409 W Flores St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	4mo	$145,000	$97	45
6707 S Amarillo Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-15%)	3mo	$235,000	$167	40
6703 S Amarillo Ln S	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-9%)	12mo	$174,500	$116	40
6706 S Azul Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-13%)	17mo	$219,000	$152	36
1402 W Longoria St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-12%)	13mo	$215,000	$147	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-39,706
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-63,260
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78577

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,891/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,648

Max offer price $130,245

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6703 S Oro Ln Pharr, TX	4.0	2.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	14d	1	0.51mi
6707 S Rios St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	1545	$1,200	$0.78	14d	1	0.54mi
719 Sherryl Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,500	$0.98	14d	1	1.09mi
321 E Greg Dr Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.29mi
901 E Thomas Dr Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $158,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,891 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,891 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$4,891
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$4,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $-801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pharr

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #5852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pharr, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 80,540
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,540
• Household income: $52,770
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2161.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 45% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.00%
• Current HPI: 261.1606
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $158,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-14 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2021-05-27 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2021-05-10 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2021-04-29 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2021-04-07 Listed $137,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,891 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.