11986 Noble Wood Village Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$222,440

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Alamo Management Group; Annual association fee of $400; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 12); One bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $222,440 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,096 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,490
• List price: $222,440
• Delta: -17.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	99
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	99
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	85
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	85
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	83
12002 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$191,140	$150	81
11962 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	72
11736 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$212,440	$167	71
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	70
11982 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	70
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+11%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	66
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $130,697
• Equity at exit: $243,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $383,129
• Equity at exit: $525,503

Cash invested: $75,737 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,057/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $245,684

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,622
• Closing costs: $8,115
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.87mi
32626A Karen Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 603-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $222,440 Active 603-char remark
3. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-01
   historical
5. 2026-04-01
   price $271,990
6. 2026-03-31
   price $194,990
7. 2026-03-27
   listed $199,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,152
• − Property taxes: −$4,057
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,869
• Taxable loss: −$6,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property has a good curb appeal and interior design, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Resale Clean windows — Improves natural light and property value
• Both Replace light wood flooring — Modernizes the space and improves resale value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Clean windows — Improves natural light and property value ↑
• Both Replace light wood flooring — Modernizes the space and improves resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $222,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,990 HARMLS