1648 Messina Ave · Orlando, FL 32811

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1971 6,674 sqft lot Est $247k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Listing price may not be sufficient to pay the total of all liens & costs of sale & sale of property at full listing price may require approval of seller's lender(s), & such approval may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced. PRE-QUAL/PRE-APPROVAL/PROOF OF FUNDS REQUIRED WITH COPY OF EARNEST MONEY DEPOSIT

Key facts

• 6,674 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.15 acres
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; East-facing; One story; Entry on one level
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 241 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $155k implies a 474% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.07%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,633
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 Lescot Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+2%)	9mo	$259,000	$235	70
1410 Heber Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+1%)	24mo	$279,000	$255	69
4752 Amoy Ct	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+2%)	20mo	$196,000	$178	63
5022 Lanette St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-5%)	8mo	$270,000	$265	63
4911 Elese St	0.36mi	3/1.5	960 (-11%)	3mo	$259,000	$270	61
5130 Lescot Ln	0.35mi	3/1.0	975 (-10%)	9mo	$170,000	$174	56
1623 Crestlawn Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,074 (-0%)	11mo	$245,000	$228	56
1834 Willie Mays Pkwy	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+15%)	10mo	$276,900	$224	55
4544 Cypress St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+14%)	13mo	$280,000	$229	35
4568 Kirkland Blvd	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,230 (+14%)	23mo	$275,000	$224	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,159
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,338
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32811

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,161/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $408	+0% $364	+5% $320	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $289	+0% $364	+5% $439	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $404	base $364	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4655 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	0.16mi
1920 Willie Mays Pkwy Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1446	$2,070	$1.43	21d	1	0.29mi
1343 Croyle Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1273	$1,900	$1.49	25d	1	0.30mi
4487 Wheatley St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1249	$1,950	$1.56	21d	1	0.35mi
5132 Elese St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,800	$1.88	17d	1	0.45mi
5300 Lescot Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,900	$1.66	25d	1	0.54mi
Unit 3-207 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,600	$1.38	5d	1	0.56mi
2151 S Ivey Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,993	$1.85	5d	1	0.59mi
5235 Florida Holly Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,100	$1.90	25d	1	0.64mi
4529 W Gore Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,549	$1.77	21d	1	0.67mi
1822 Horne Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1249	$1,600	$1.28	25d	1	0.68mi
4201 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.71mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	25d	1	0.72mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	19d	1	0.72mi
4957 Vista Lago Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,228	$1.63	8d	1	0.74mi
769 Willie Mays Pkwy Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	5d	1	0.79mi
701 S Ivey Ln Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	871	$1,329	$1.53	25d	1	0.85mi
4118 Minoso St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1213	$1,860	$1.53	25d	1	0.85mi
5036 College Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.94mi
4226 Kelly Miller Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,950	$1.73	25d	1	0.96mi
1401 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,116	$2.17	2d	32	0.96mi
907 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1131	$1,660	$1.47	4d	14	1.00mi
5425 Wood Crossing St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	5d	1	1.01mi
1935 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,150	$2.11	3d	14	1.03mi
1601 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,980	$2.26	3d	23	1.04mi
3950 Columbia St Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,416	$1.62	25d	1	1.07mi
4995 Mercer St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,500	$1.80	3d	1	1.07mi
5536 Metrowest Blvd Bldg 8 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,800	$1.49	25d	1	1.08mi
5584 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,876	$1.78	25d	8	1.10mi
5542 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,720	$1.54	3d	2	1.12mi
5542 Metrowest Blvd Unit 106 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,765	$1.52	5d	1	1.12mi
3810 Thompson St Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	3d	1	1.14mi
5548 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1093	$1,460	$1.34	3d	2	1.16mi
5548 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1093	$1,470	$1.34	5d	1	1.16mi
5572 Metrowest Blvd #311 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$2,000	$1.86	25d	1	1.17mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd #203 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,800	$1.32	8d	1	1.17mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	5d	3	1.17mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	4d	2	1.17mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	11d	2	1.17mi
431 Gilman Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,626	$1.42	15d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $155,000 Active
3. 2009-11-24
   soldstatus $27,000 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Short Sale. Listing price may not be sufficient to pay the total of all liens & costs of sale & sale of property at full listing price may require approval of seller's lender(s), & such approval may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced. PRE-QUAL/PRE-APPROVAL/PROOF OF FUNDS REQUIRED WITH COPY OF EARNEST MONEY DEPOSIT

4. 2009-09-24
   listed $40,000 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Short Sale. Listing price may not be sufficient to pay the total of all liens & costs of sale & sale of property at full listing price may require approval of seller's lender(s), & such approval may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced. PRE-QUAL/PRE-APPROVAL/PROOF OF FUNDS REQUIRED WITH COPY OF EARNEST MONEY DEPOSIT

5. 2008-03-07
   soldstatus $135,000
6. 1996-10-31
   soldstatus $65,900
7. 1996-08-13
   soldstatus $45,000
8. 1996-03-19
   soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,161
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,475
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 69.9% rent · 30.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2728.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 4% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.37%
• Current HPI: 284.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+355.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-24 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-24 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $65,900 Public Records
• 1996-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,161 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.