NV2806 Plan · Conroe, TX 77301

$145,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · Manufactured · 604 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As one of the latest additions to the New Vision Manufacturing lineup, this home offers an open layout designed for both comfort and style, making it perfect for families or those who love to entertain. Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED.

Key facts

• Listed 604 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $128,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,407
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $30,051
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$182 /mo · $2,188/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Mount Blanc Path Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	2094	$1,800	$0.86	43d	1	0.94mi
11823 Stonehedge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	0.96mi
2100 Hill Top Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1228	$1,599	$1.30	1d	1	1.12mi
719 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	1.25mi
727 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,650	$1.23	12d	1	1.26mi
1307 Vincente Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,900 Active 604 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,900 Active 603 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,900 Active 602 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,900 Active 601 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,900 Active 599 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 595 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,900 Active 594 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,900 Active 593 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,900 Active 590 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,900 Active 589 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,900 Active 587 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,900 Active 586 DOM
13. 2024-10-22
    listed $145,900 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    As one of the latest additions to the New Vision Manufacturing lineup, this home offers an open layout designed for both comfort and style, making it perfect for families or those who love to entertain. Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,188
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable income: $3,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$846
• After-tax cash flow: $4,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It requires some exterior and interior maintenance to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens the interior and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Inspect and replace HVAC — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Inspect and replace roof — Ensures structural integrity and longevity.
• Both Inspect and replace windows — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal.
• Both Inspect and replace flooring — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity.
• Both Inspect and replace cabinets — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity.
• Both Inspect and replace appliances — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity.
• Both Inspect and replace bathrooms — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens the interior and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace HVAC — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace roof — Ensures structural integrity and longevity. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace windows — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace flooring — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace cabinets — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace appliances — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace bathrooms — Maintains aesthetic and structural integrity. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-10-22 Listed $145,900 Zillow