3853 68th Ave NE · Orangetree, FL 34120

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · Land · 137 Days on market

Built 2026 2.73 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY SALE, HOME is UNDER CONSTRUCTION. Home is being sold in AS IS condition. 3 bedrooms plus den, lanai, 2 car garage. Lot is 100% upland, attached is TEC Report and Floor Plan. Buyer TO ASSUME PROJECT AND COMPLETE CONSTRUCTION AFTER CLOSING.

Key facts

• 2.73 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Golden Gate Estates development; Lot size approximately 2.73 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowner maintenance fees; Community is non-gated; Community amenities note: horses OK

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Florida-style design; One story; Rear exposure faces north
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Shingle roof; Built in 2026; Surveyed lot dimensions
• Exterior features: Wooded area view; Horses allowed on the lot; Public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus a den; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; No master bath described
• Interior features: See remarks for additional interior details; Open porch/lanai; Den (study); Split bedroom floor plan; Dining area combined with living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence (in-unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($267/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1132 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $400k implies a 1602% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,173 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-72,869
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-98,244
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1132
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $135	+0% $22	+5% $-91	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-104	+0% $22	+5% $148	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $124	base $22	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22478 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,900	$1.95	25d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $400,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $400,000 Active
17. 2002-07-12
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,320 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,326/yr (+$194/mo · 233.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$3,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,064
• − Management: −$3,064
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $1,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1602.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $400,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2002-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $994 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.