2511 N Main Ave · Springfield, MO 65803

$139,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1912 8,276 sqft lot $106/sqft · 16% below area Est $167k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for an investor or future owner-occupant. Tenant currently in place. Property is being sold as-is

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1912
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 1,320 above-grade finished area
• Financial info: Tax information provided: annual tax available
• HOA & community: HOA details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security features not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Construction details not specified
• Exterior features: Lot in Oak Ridge Add subdivision; 0.19 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances not specified
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weaver Elem. (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 224 students, 91% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 46% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,400
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -16.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2525 N Campbell Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (-8%)	3mo	$159,000	$131	71
2323 N Missouri Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,254 (-5%)	1mo	$179,900	$143	70
733 W Kerr St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$156	58
2622 N Summit Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,308 (-1%)	1mo	$169,900	$130	57
817 W Talmage St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+13%)	5mo	$169,900	$114	54
2755 N Campbell Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,137 (-14%)	0mo	$172,000	$151	50
2237 N Franklin Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	4mo	$175,000	$122	47
721 W Dale St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-9%)	6mo	$177,400	$148	46
1123 W High St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-13%)	5mo	$139,500	$122	41
2039 N Main Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-11%)	6mo	$239,900	$205	40
624 E Livingston St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-11%)	2mo	$199,900	$171	39
2131 N Johnston Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+11%)	2mo	$135,000	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,047
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $36,843
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1127 W Talmage St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	0.48mi
2117 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	43d	1	1.11mi
1530 N Robberson Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	1.14mi
2153 N National Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1163	$1,195	$1.03	13d	1	1.23mi
1034 E McCanse St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	910	$1,150	$1.26	23d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $139,900 Active 115-char remark
16. 2025-01-30
    historical $1,050
17. 2025-01-08
    price $1,050
18. 2024-10-26
    listed $1,295
19. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $150,000
20. 2016-01-15
    listed $74,445
21. 2005-06-22
    soldstatus
22. 2004-01-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$742/yr (+$62/mo · 120.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $3,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+87.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $139,900 SOMO
• 2025-01-30 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-26 Listed for Rent $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-15 Listed $74,445 SOMO
• 2005-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.